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National Geographic Six Degrees Could Change the World
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We have signs of very great |
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Everything happened so fast. |
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There's creeks drying up |
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We've got a forest here |
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We're going |
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Our planet |
| 00:00:27 |
Global warming isn't out of control, |
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The warning signs are all around us. |
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This is the challenge |
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What can we do about global warming? |
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What will happen |
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The temperature is rising. |
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Each degree is critical. |
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Just one degree... |
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- One degree warmer... |
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- Threshold is about three degrees... |
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You're starting |
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Three degrees, |
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Six degrees is almost unimaginable. |
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Imagine the 21st century, |
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if global warming accelerates. |
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Where does the next super-storm hit, |
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the next scorching heat wave, |
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the next catastrophe, |
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as the world warms degree by degree? |
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The debate has ended. |
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Scientists around the globe |
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in a world warmer by almost |
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Tracking the Earth's vital signs |
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Thousands of ships at sea. |
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Tens of thousands of stations on land. |
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Satellites monitoring from space. |
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Scientists feed the data into |
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to calculate |
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The predictions are alarming. |
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In four decades, |
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the source ofwater |
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Within 50 years, |
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Greenland's melting ice sheet |
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By the end of this century, |
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home to half |
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could wither to an arid savannah. |
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We're on the brink |
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hotter than it's been |
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A temperature rise between |
| 00:03:15 |
is possible over the next century. |
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Each degree means |
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In some parts of the world, |
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may be arriving with a vengeance. |
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In Australia, bushfires are |
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especially in drought years. |
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But climate change |
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from bad to worse. |
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Australia's east coast is a tinderbox. |
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In the winter of 2001, |
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They called it black Christmas. |
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Now after a decade of drought, |
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This year we had fires |
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We fought them |
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It is scary, |
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we're getting fires happen |
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Once the intensity of that fire |
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no amount of water is enough |
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to actually cool the fire down |
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Current data show |
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has already risen |
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Victoria, Australia's |
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is in the grip of one of the worst |
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For many, these fires |
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a wake-up call about |
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Less than a degree of warming |
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And that is enough |
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which was already |
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into a land mass which has lost |
| 00:05:17 |
that they're currently experiencing |
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That drought has driven |
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and into the front yards |
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Get in. Get in, mate. |
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Weather reports are now |
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What's happening? |
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Got a fire five kilometers away. |
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We just want to know what to do. |
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If the wind shifts, |
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The fire engine's coming now, |
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is get all the kids together |
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I'm a bit upset because Rob |
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In some Sydney |
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Stay and fight the fire |
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or leave and hope your home |
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I'm gonna have to call you back. |
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A house is a house. |
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but you know, if you lose a loved one... |
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It was our first house, |
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so he was going to do everything |
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My wife left |
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and it was up to me to make sure |
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that it was going to all |
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Bye, hero. |
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I'll call you from your mom's. |
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You take it easy. |
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No worries. You get out of here. |
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See you. |
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Bushfires are already bad. |
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Climate scientists predict in the next |
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And it doesn't end there. |
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Global warming doesn't just mean |
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the slow increase |
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It completely changes the way |
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which is why we can see droughts |
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or even a succession of drought |
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National Geographic |
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spent years compiling data |
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to understand how each |
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could threaten the planet. |
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It's difficult |
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the future impacts of global warming. |
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It's something I really |
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to help people visualize the reality, |
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because it isn't actually intuitive |
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that the emissions from your car exhaust |
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are going to be melting a glacier |
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While experts estimate |
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could rise up to six degrees Celsius, |
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or nearly 11 degrees Fahrenheit, |
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over the next 100 years, |
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Even a small shift |
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just six degrees, |
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Six degrees shift |
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is the sort of thing that we expect |
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If it's six degrees hotter tomorrow, |
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Six degrees in terms of a global |
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is the difference between now |
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18,000 years ago |
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advanced to just |
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and in places the ice cap |
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Just six degrees of cooling |
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Imagine it six degrees hotter. |
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The very earliest changes would |
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The atmosphere |
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between the planet's surface |
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A small percentage |
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a cocktail ofwater vapor, |
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nitrous oxide and ozone. |
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They are like a dome over the planet, |
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retaining just enough |
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to maintain temperatures |
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As the amounts of those gases increase, |
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and can radically affect |
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For the last 250 years, |
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as we find more and more ways |
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CO2 is the hidden price we pay. |
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Carbon dioxide rises |
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from the energy that powers |
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It's literally in the air we breathe. |
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There are now 383 carbon dioxide |
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It seems miniscule, |
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so does the average temperature |
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Doubling of CO2 is |
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The dangerous level |
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and we're already up to 383. |
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Additional global warming |
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is a very big deal. |
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All we're doing is saying |
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what will happen if we carry on |
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So what you can do is to lay out |
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a number of possible pictures |
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and hope people will select |
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Selecting the right scenario |
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Experts agree it won't be an easy fix, |
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but there's reason for hope. |
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Some potential solutions |
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many others still on the drawing board. |
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How will we respond? |
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What will the planet look like |
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two degrees, three degrees or more? |
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Are we willing to take that risk? |
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If the world warms |
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the Arctic is ice-free |
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opening the legendary |
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Tens of thousands of homes |
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Hurricanes begin hitting |
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Severe droughts in the western U.S. |
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cause shortages |
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This could be our world |
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At one degree |
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we're likely to see |
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in the western half |
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From Texas in the south |
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is in danger of becoming |
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where really no crops |
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In western Nebraska, |
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that aren't very dependable these days. |
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Cattleman Bruce Whoeler needs |
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for his herd to survive. |
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We've been hauling water here |
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and sometimes twice a day. |
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Looks like another dry tank. |
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After seven years |
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Just keeping his herd alive |
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The animals go without water, |
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It's so dry here now, |
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to last the long, hot summer. |
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The whoeler family |
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When I was growing up, |
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There's creeks dried up that |
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I know even in my dad's lifetime, |
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there's creeks that he said |
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and they're dried up now. |
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Ranchers like the Whoelers |
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and rely on its patterns, |
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knowledge that's been passed |
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over six generations. |
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That gave us |
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when we wanted to start up |
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as young married people ourselves. |
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But past generations of |
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may not be enough in a warming world. |
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I think it is just |
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I hope it is, anyway. |
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It'd be very difficult to keep ranching |
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because a lot of this country's |
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if we don't have water. |
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And if it turned into |
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wouldn't be cattle here. |
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Warming ofjust one degree |
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could turn some ofAmerica's |
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into desert... again. |
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6,000 years ago, |
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was part of a vast desert |
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A minor shift in the Earth's orbit |
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caused the summer sun |
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just enough to radically |
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Only a very thin layer of topsoil |
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covers the desert sand that still lurks |
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All it took was |
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and the moisture disappeared. |
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The 1930s gave us a glimpse |
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ofjust how fragile the land can be. |
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So think of a repeat |
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and multiply it by about 20. |
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This could devastate a huge part |
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But a shift |
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could transform cattle country |
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of searing heat and relentless drought. |
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For now, the sands under |
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But for how long? |
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As we race toward a planet |
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the global warming scorecard |
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While the western U.S. |
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England is enjoying |
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Fortunes will be made and lost, |
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if global weather patterns rearrange |
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where different crops can be grown. |
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The winters, which used |
| 00:16:56 |
are getting much milder |
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That's not counterbalanced |
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which is affecting |
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Right now, England |
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for one of the world's most fragile |
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You can't have it too hot for grapes, |
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because you realize |
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When David Middleton |
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neighbors thought he'd gone mad. |
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But as wine producing regions |
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the climate for growing grapes |
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The idea of a fine English wine |
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Now there are more |
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Middleton is planting another crop |
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that's astonishing for England, |
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Olive trees from Tuscany. |
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Olives will love it here. |
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Temperature in the summer |
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so they will enjoy it and we |
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None of this would have |
| 00:18:14 |
The Earth's average temperature |
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And a variable climate isn't unusual. |
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It's the pace of climate change |
| 00:18:28 |
If you had asked us, |
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what would be the impact of one |
| 00:18:36 |
we would say, "Well, probably |
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NASA climate scientist |
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was one of the first to sound |
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The threat has only escalated |
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What we realize now |
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is that we're getting |
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that we're gonna have to |
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Studying climates |
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onto the dangers posed |
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In the last million years |
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than one degree Celsius |
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What we're doing now with |
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is an order of magnitude larger, |
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and it's being introduced very rapidly. |
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The planet has experienced |
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But it usually plays out over |
| 00:19:38 |
Now global warming |
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even years. |
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It means scores of species |
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Warming at this speed could send |
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like nothing we've experienced |
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Global warming started |
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Every switch we flip, every plug, |
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every button we push |
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inevitably leads back |
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Nearly 90 percent of the world's energy |
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Coal, oil, natural gas. |
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But the chemistry of burning |
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of prehistoric plants |
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Carbon dioxide. |
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These three fuels combined |
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of CO2 emissions pouring |
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They've enhanced the quality |
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It's hard to imagine |
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Product by product, |
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to make one pair of sunglasses |
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But the carbon impact |
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I got to wondering... |
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...what's the carbon impact |
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Americans, all 300 million of us, |
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eat an average |
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And so that's like 150 cheeseburgers |
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for each one of us every year. |
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That's billions of cheeseburgers in |
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Among the scientists |
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investigating climate change, |
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Jamais Cascio has staked out |
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I had to be able |
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calculate the actual solid |
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of a cheeseburger. |
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The carbon footprint |
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that was consumed every step of the way |
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for each of a cheeseburger's |
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When you look |
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growing the lettuce, |
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growing the wheat |
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and milking the cattle, |
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processing the cattle into beef, |
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trucking all that stuff around, keeping |
| 00:22:36 |
has a pretty significant |
| 00:22:39 |
Carbon dioxide |
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that's produced in the end. |
| 00:22:47 |
But then it struck me. |
| 00:22:48 |
There's another critical part |
| 00:22:51 |
of the overall greenhouse gas footprint |
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that I wasn't including: methane, |
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methane from cattle. |
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Well, the FDA calls it very politely |
| 00:23:06 |
"enteric fermentation." |
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It's what comes out of the cow. |
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And methane, as it turns out, |
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of at least 23 units of carbon dioxide. |
| 00:23:20 |
Add it all up, |
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and all that CO2, |
| 00:23:25 |
and you've got a very big number. |
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Pretty close to 200 million metric tons, |
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200 million metric tons |
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just from cheeseburgers |
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Cascio has calculated |
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that there are even more |
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every year from cheeseburgers |
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than from all the SUVs |
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This is just one kind of food. |
| 00:23:57 |
Think about all of the enormous |
| 00:24:00 |
that we purchase, we consume. |
| 00:24:02 |
And you realize that it's |
| 00:24:06 |
that are really the critical |
| 00:24:09 |
leading to global warming. |
| 00:24:15 |
Even at the lower end |
| 00:24:18 |
there could be fundamental changes |
| 00:24:26 |
If the temperature rises |
| 00:24:30 |
it could threaten |
| 00:24:34 |
from the bottom of the oceans, |
| 00:24:36 |
to the world's highest peaks. |
| 00:24:44 |
If the world warms by two degrees, |
| 00:24:47 |
some changes to the biosphere |
| 00:24:52 |
Greenland's glaciers are disappearing. |
| 00:24:56 |
So much ice has melted, |
| 00:25:04 |
Insects migrate |
| 00:25:09 |
As a temperate climate |
| 00:25:12 |
pine beetles kill off |
| 00:25:16 |
a grizzly bear's key source |
| 00:25:22 |
New forests take root |
| 00:25:29 |
The Pacific islands |
| 00:25:31 |
beneath the rising tides |
| 00:25:39 |
This could be our world |
| 00:25:43 |
At two degrees of warming, |
| 00:25:45 |
the impacts in the marine ecosystem |
| 00:25:50 |
We're likely to lose the vast majority |
| 00:25:54 |
It's a problem that's |
| 00:25:57 |
late into the night. |
| 00:26:00 |
To some, |
| 00:26:03 |
that we could change something |
| 00:26:06 |
I mean, the Pacific Ocean, I mean, |
| 00:26:08 |
if you just take |
| 00:26:11 |
how could we change it? |
| 00:26:15 |
A marine biologist at the |
| 00:26:19 |
Ove is tracking changes in coral reefs. |
| 00:26:23 |
They're acting |
| 00:26:27 |
Miners used to take a bird with them. |
| 00:26:29 |
When the bird got sick |
| 00:26:31 |
because there was gas |
| 00:26:35 |
Well, coral reefs, you know, |
| 00:26:36 |
a beautiful, |
| 00:26:39 |
the fact that that's disappearing |
| 00:26:43 |
just like the canary |
| 00:26:46 |
Located on |
| 00:26:49 |
along the northeast coast |
| 00:26:51 |
his lab is on the front lines |
| 00:27:02 |
Recently, the great barrier reef |
| 00:27:09 |
When waters warmed |
| 00:27:12 |
of 86 degrees Fahrenheit, |
| 00:27:14 |
they began expelling |
| 00:27:20 |
Large sections of the reef died. |
| 00:27:25 |
When you jump off |
| 00:27:29 |
it really comes home to you, the scale |
| 00:27:33 |
What would happen |
| 00:27:36 |
and one in every five trees |
| 00:27:39 |
had just disappeared? |
| 00:27:41 |
Well, that's what's been |
| 00:27:45 |
More than a million species |
| 00:27:51 |
They need the reef. |
| 00:27:53 |
They literally can't live without it. |
| 00:27:58 |
Another recent trend |
| 00:28:01 |
far beyond coral reefs, |
| 00:28:08 |
The oceans are the planet's |
| 00:28:12 |
nature's primary mechanism |
| 00:28:13 |
for absorbing CO2 |
| 00:28:19 |
But lately there are indications |
| 00:28:30 |
Under normal conditions, |
| 00:28:32 |
tiny sea creatures like forams |
| 00:28:36 |
absorb carbon out of the water |
| 00:28:38 |
and use it to build |
| 00:28:43 |
But there is a tipping point, |
| 00:28:45 |
when too much CO2 in the oceans |
| 00:28:47 |
turns the water |
| 00:28:52 |
Acidification dissolves |
| 00:28:56 |
and prevents them from absorbing |
| 00:28:59 |
to build new ones. |
| 00:29:04 |
Some of these tiny animals |
| 00:29:07 |
measure only a fraction of an inch. |
| 00:29:11 |
But the fate of all sea creatures, |
| 00:29:13 |
of all shapes and sizes, |
| 00:29:17 |
larger and larger, |
| 00:29:20 |
hangs in the balance. |
| 00:29:23 |
Alter the ocean's chemistry, |
| 00:29:25 |
and nature's primary mechanism |
| 00:29:28 |
begins to break down. |
| 00:29:31 |
You lose a coral reef, |
| 00:29:36 |
You lose those little coccolithophores, |
| 00:29:39 |
and you start to lose things |
| 00:29:40 |
that are very important |
| 00:29:45 |
We're losing some of the most vital |
| 00:29:49 |
And that's got us all concerned. |
| 00:29:53 |
Scientists half |
| 00:29:58 |
They're investigating global warming |
| 00:30:05 |
It took nature 150,000 years |
| 00:30:08 |
to make the great Greenland ice sheet |
| 00:30:10 |
that's now melting into the sea |
| 00:30:19 |
As it disappears, rising oceans |
| 00:30:22 |
will flood coastal cities |
| 00:30:32 |
Greenland's Jakobshavn Glacier |
| 00:30:34 |
is the fastest moving ice field |
| 00:30:38 |
more than 130 feet per day, |
| 00:30:41 |
melting into the sea |
| 00:30:47 |
In just two days, the amount |
| 00:30:50 |
contains enough water |
| 00:30:52 |
for the New York |
| 00:31:00 |
One of the greatest |
| 00:31:03 |
if the planet continues to get warmer |
| 00:31:05 |
is the stability of the ice sheets. |
| 00:31:08 |
And the danger is that the ice sheet |
| 00:31:11 |
could begin to collapse very rapidly. |
| 00:31:16 |
Rising temperatures |
| 00:31:19 |
one of the Earth's harshest climates, |
| 00:31:21 |
disrupting the way people have lived |
| 00:31:31 |
For as long as anyone can remember, |
| 00:31:33 |
sled dogs have been |
| 00:31:36 |
and a necessity for survival, |
| 00:31:39 |
especially for hunting |
| 00:31:51 |
When the winter ice started thinning, |
| 00:31:53 |
dogs became an expense |
| 00:32:01 |
In this town of 4,500 people, |
| 00:32:05 |
with very little to do these days. |
| 00:32:10 |
Many are starving. |
| 00:32:17 |
Marit Holm is one of Greenland's |
| 00:32:22 |
As she patrols the town of Ilulissat, |
| 00:32:25 |
she sees the impact of climate change |
| 00:32:27 |
in every sled dog |
| 00:32:32 |
So, what I do, I drive |
| 00:32:43 |
There's snow melting |
| 00:32:45 |
and suddenly the dog's place |
| 00:32:49 |
and they don't have any place |
| 00:32:57 |
The dogs are hungry, |
| 00:33:00 |
not to get bitten. |
| 00:33:02 |
And when the dogs are hungry, |
| 00:33:06 |
to people and kids walking around. |
| 00:33:13 |
It doesn't seem to be sick. |
| 00:33:16 |
He's very skinny. |
| 00:33:18 |
So I have to try to find out |
| 00:33:20 |
and talk to him. |
| 00:33:24 |
These animals were |
| 00:33:27 |
They served a vital purpose |
| 00:33:33 |
That's a thing of the past, |
| 00:33:35 |
and we don't see |
| 00:33:39 |
some dogs and live |
| 00:33:44 |
Dogs have been |
| 00:33:47 |
as long as he can remember. |
| 00:33:49 |
He finally gave up his team of 19 |
| 00:33:54 |
In the winter, |
| 00:33:57 |
an impossible thing to do |
| 00:34:00 |
most of the fishermen go out |
| 00:34:03 |
instead of dogsleds. |
| 00:34:08 |
When Finn was growing up, |
| 00:34:12 |
solid ice for more than half the year. |
| 00:34:18 |
Everything happened so fast. |
| 00:34:20 |
It's so visible. |
| 00:34:22 |
You don't have to be a scientist |
| 00:34:28 |
With each passing season, |
| 00:34:31 |
locked in the ice melt away. |
| 00:34:34 |
Something |
| 00:34:37 |
because you |
| 00:34:40 |
And these bubbles are older |
| 00:34:42 |
than all living creatures in the world. |
| 00:34:46 |
And you can listen to it. |
| 00:34:52 |
Because the bubbles |
| 00:34:55 |
and when they get out, |
| 00:34:59 |
You can talk to the ice. |
| 00:35:03 |
That's what an intrepid team |
| 00:35:07 |
fly into Greenland's interior |
| 00:35:17 |
Swiss camp is a scientific |
| 00:35:20 |
built directly into the glacier |
| 00:35:27 |
Dr. Konrad Steffens |
| 00:35:30 |
that has to dig out every spring. |
| 00:35:35 |
Lately, he's found areas of the glacier |
| 00:35:37 |
that hadn't melted |
| 00:35:40 |
covered in water every summer. |
| 00:35:45 |
I checked the |
| 00:35:47 |
- What? |
| 00:35:50 |
Why not? |
| 00:35:51 |
We have record temperatures |
| 00:35:56 |
Some experts predict |
| 00:35:59 |
could be enough to dismantle |
| 00:36:02 |
but that would take thousands of years. |
| 00:36:05 |
Steffens suspects |
| 00:36:07 |
much more rapidly, |
| 00:36:09 |
within the next 50 years, |
| 00:36:11 |
when melting |
| 00:36:16 |
To find out, he must venture |
| 00:36:26 |
Steffens has erected 23 full-service |
| 00:36:30 |
that take a complete range of climate |
| 00:36:34 |
updating global warming |
| 00:36:37 |
all over the world. |
| 00:36:41 |
The ice sheet is very old. |
| 00:36:43 |
It's over 150,000 years old. |
| 00:36:48 |
If you start to remove it, |
| 00:36:50 |
then you actually start a process |
| 00:36:53 |
that is unknown to civilization. |
| 00:36:55 |
We have never seen |
| 00:36:58 |
Watch it, watch it, watch it. |
| 00:37:04 |
In 1992, |
| 00:37:05 |
3.5 miles of glacier |
| 00:37:09 |
and disappearing. |
| 00:37:13 |
Ten years later, that number |
| 00:37:15 |
to 7.8 miles annually. |
| 00:37:20 |
Steffens wouldn't understand |
| 00:37:22 |
how warmer weather affects |
| 00:37:24 |
until he came upon |
| 00:37:26 |
and most dangerous features |
| 00:37:35 |
Rivers of melted ice |
| 00:37:37 |
are cascading straight down |
| 00:37:40 |
creating huge tunnels |
| 00:37:55 |
The team lowers |
| 00:37:59 |
Their hypothesis: |
| 00:38:02 |
has cut all the way through |
| 00:38:05 |
a quarter of a mile below, |
| 00:38:06 |
and is lubricating |
| 00:38:09 |
propelling it faster |
| 00:38:14 |
Fifty meters. |
| 00:38:17 |
Sixty meters. |
| 00:38:20 |
- Seventy meters. |
| 00:38:24 |
For Steffens and his team, |
| 00:38:30 |
This shaft,and many like it, |
| 00:38:32 |
go all the way through the glacier, |
| 00:38:37 |
for speeding |
| 00:38:41 |
It's melting so rapidly now, |
| 00:38:45 |
as much as three or four feet |
| 00:38:50 |
The consequences could be catastrophic. |
| 00:38:54 |
The Greenland ice sheet |
| 00:38:58 |
to raise global sea levels |
| 00:39:01 |
which is enough to flood |
| 00:39:03 |
New York, Shanghai, you name it. |
| 00:39:08 |
Many scientists focus |
| 00:39:11 |
as the tipping point |
| 00:39:13 |
that will fundamentally change |
| 00:39:18 |
We are very close |
| 00:39:22 |
Some scientists already say |
| 00:39:24 |
it's probably too late |
| 00:39:27 |
I don't agree with that, |
| 00:39:31 |
to going to a situation |
| 00:39:33 |
where we would have no ice |
| 00:39:38 |
This could be |
| 00:39:41 |
becomes a runaway train. |
| 00:39:44 |
Warming accelerates |
| 00:39:47 |
The loss of ice |
| 00:39:52 |
More water from melting ice |
| 00:39:56 |
melting the ice sheet |
| 00:40:02 |
The warmer it gets, |
| 00:40:08 |
That's when global warming |
| 00:40:10 |
becomes a chain reaction |
| 00:40:17 |
Many solutions already available |
| 00:40:21 |
avoid the plus-two-degree |
| 00:40:26 |
They add up quickly. |
| 00:40:29 |
From switching |
| 00:40:31 |
to increasing the efficiency |
| 00:40:34 |
byjust 20 percent. |
| 00:40:39 |
Together, solutions like these |
| 00:40:43 |
before we start making |
| 00:40:45 |
to the Earth's primary |
| 00:40:49 |
If a rise of two degrees |
| 00:40:51 |
doesn't push the planet |
| 00:40:54 |
many scientists predict |
| 00:41:11 |
If the world warms by three degrees, |
| 00:41:15 |
the Arctic is ice-free all summer. |
| 00:41:19 |
The Amazon rainforest is drying out. |
| 00:41:24 |
Snowcaps on the Alps |
| 00:41:30 |
El Nino's extreme weather |
| 00:41:36 |
The Mediterranean and parts of Europe |
| 00:41:39 |
wither in searing summer heat. |
| 00:41:43 |
This could be our world |
| 00:41:48 |
In a three-degree-warmer world, |
| 00:41:50 |
these kinds of summer heat waves |
| 00:41:53 |
So an extremely hot summer |
| 00:41:55 |
will bring the kinds |
| 00:41:58 |
that you now experience in the Middle |
| 00:42:03 |
The summer of 2003 |
| 00:42:06 |
onto life in a world |
| 00:42:12 |
All across Europe, |
| 00:42:15 |
developed into a natural disaster. |
| 00:42:22 |
Paris tends to empty in the summer. |
| 00:42:25 |
Many elderly stay behind. |
| 00:42:30 |
Nobody could have anticipated |
| 00:42:37 |
Never before would I |
| 00:42:41 |
that one could die of heatstroke |
| 00:42:42 |
at the beginning of |
| 00:42:48 |
It was a terrible awakening. |
| 00:42:54 |
Emergency room |
| 00:42:57 |
something was terribly wrong. |
| 00:43:03 |
Around |
| 00:43:06 |
we started getting red-flag warnings. |
| 00:43:09 |
The patients arrived and died from heat. |
| 00:43:13 |
This was not a pathology |
| 00:43:17 |
Emergency room doctor |
| 00:43:20 |
the heat wave is turning |
| 00:43:25 |
You had |
| 00:43:27 |
comparable to a flame-thrower |
| 00:43:34 |
The number of people who died |
| 00:43:38 |
is between 2,500 and 3,000. |
| 00:43:44 |
The city's |
| 00:43:46 |
were designed for an earlier era: |
| 00:43:48 |
to protect against winter chill. |
| 00:43:52 |
Now rising temperatures have |
| 00:43:59 |
In Paris, |
| 00:44:02 |
Inside the houses became a real oven. |
| 00:44:10 |
The death toll |
| 00:44:16 |
In France alone, over 14,000 |
| 00:44:25 |
The heat wave of 2003 |
| 00:44:27 |
was probably |
| 00:44:30 |
due to global warming |
| 00:44:34 |
a rich country that thought itself |
| 00:44:38 |
Well, that was wrong. |
| 00:44:48 |
If global warming |
| 00:44:51 |
it won't be the end |
| 00:44:54 |
But the character of this great city |
| 00:44:58 |
when extreme summer heat waves |
| 00:45:20 |
During the heat wave of 2003, |
| 00:45:22 |
another little-noticed phenomenon |
| 00:45:24 |
among Europe's trees |
| 00:45:28 |
a kind of vegetation backlash. |
| 00:45:32 |
Photosynthesis |
| 00:45:36 |
Under normal conditions, |
| 00:45:39 |
are a first-line of defense |
| 00:45:43 |
absorbing CO2, |
| 00:45:46 |
and releasing it |
| 00:45:52 |
But in the extreme heat that summer, |
| 00:45:55 |
some plants retained oxygen, |
| 00:45:57 |
releasing CO2 |
| 00:46:03 |
Philippe Ciais, |
| 00:46:06 |
noticed unusually high levels of CO2 |
| 00:46:09 |
in satellite images of Paris. |
| 00:46:13 |
We saw a large release |
| 00:46:17 |
from the vegetation. |
| 00:46:19 |
The trees were not able to take |
| 00:46:22 |
But they were emitting, releasing CO2, |
| 00:46:28 |
What happens to the biosphere |
| 00:46:30 |
if one of the planet's |
| 00:46:33 |
for converting CO2 into oxygen |
| 00:46:35 |
stops working on a regular basis? |
| 00:46:41 |
Possible answers are emerging |
| 00:46:46 |
one of the world's foremost facilities |
| 00:46:49 |
for forecasting where |
| 00:46:56 |
Massive super-computers factor |
| 00:47:00 |
to project the impact of global warming |
| 00:47:03 |
all over the planet. |
| 00:47:09 |
Trying to peer decades into the future |
| 00:47:11 |
keeps climate modelers |
| 00:47:15 |
Tea and coffee? |
| 00:47:19 |
One of their |
| 00:47:21 |
is calculating the effect |
| 00:47:24 |
on the Amazon rainforest, |
| 00:47:26 |
where 20 percent |
| 00:47:31 |
We wanted to know |
| 00:47:34 |
would affect tropical rainforests |
| 00:47:36 |
and in particular the Amazon |
| 00:47:38 |
because it is such an iconic region, |
| 00:47:40 |
important both environmentally, |
| 00:47:46 |
The climate model |
| 00:47:49 |
Three degrees ofwarming |
| 00:47:51 |
could trigger |
| 00:47:54 |
accelerating global warming even more, |
| 00:47:57 |
possibly reducing one |
| 00:48:00 |
into a patchwork of arid savannah. |
| 00:48:04 |
When you see predictions |
| 00:48:08 |
and you think, it's a different world |
| 00:48:10 |
that our children are going to see, |
| 00:48:14 |
It takes someone coming |
| 00:48:16 |
"You're talking about |
| 00:48:19 |
Summer 2005. |
| 00:48:21 |
The Amazon River. |
| 00:48:23 |
Extreme heat teams with the driest |
| 00:48:29 |
It's the perfect drought. |
| 00:48:35 |
Few can recall a time |
| 00:48:37 |
on the mightiest river in the world, |
| 00:48:39 |
when its tributaries ran dry, not low, |
| 00:48:44 |
dirt dry. |
| 00:48:47 |
In 2005, we saw |
| 00:48:50 |
which was just incredible. |
| 00:48:54 |
The Brazilian army actually |
| 00:48:57 |
huge quantities of water up |
| 00:49:00 |
in order to stop people dying of thirst |
| 00:49:02 |
in villages which are normally |
| 00:49:07 |
First drought, then fire. |
| 00:49:11 |
In the aftermath of summer 2005, |
| 00:49:14 |
over a thousand square miles |
| 00:49:22 |
In the upper Xingu Park, |
| 00:49:25 |
is on the front lines |
| 00:49:30 |
A fierce warrior tribe, they now |
| 00:49:35 |
one that could destroy their forest. |
| 00:49:44 |
The Kisedje men prepare for the struggle |
| 00:49:48 |
passed down from their ancestors. |
| 00:49:54 |
In the past, they have fought |
| 00:49:57 |
against commercial agriculture |
| 00:50:01 |
But this opponent is elusive. |
| 00:50:04 |
It comes armed |
| 00:50:10 |
Chief Kuiussi already notices changes. |
| 00:50:22 |
We used to be able |
| 00:50:25 |
at the Milky Way, |
| 00:50:26 |
and know exactly when the rains |
| 00:50:31 |
But we cannot see |
| 00:50:35 |
They do not come. |
| 00:50:38 |
The Kisedje rely |
| 00:50:42 |
for their survival. |
| 00:50:45 |
Trees help generate 50 percent |
| 00:50:52 |
As more forest is lost, |
| 00:50:54 |
the very source of the Amazon's |
| 00:51:00 |
For every tree that we lose, |
| 00:51:04 |
towards a scenario of drought |
| 00:51:09 |
Ecologist Daniel Nepstad |
| 00:51:13 |
for over 25 years |
| 00:51:15 |
and sees global warming |
| 00:51:17 |
pushing the region |
| 00:51:21 |
We think that maybe |
| 00:51:24 |
we're gonna see what we call |
| 00:51:28 |
these vicious cycles of drought |
| 00:51:32 |
leading to more drought. |
| 00:51:34 |
And that's much sooner, of course, |
| 00:51:37 |
than the climate models |
| 00:51:43 |
In the extreme conditions |
| 00:51:47 |
losing much of the Amazon |
| 00:51:51 |
of hundreds of millions of tons |
| 00:51:54 |
perhaps intensifying |
| 00:52:04 |
If we get |
| 00:52:06 |
and the Amazon is brushland, |
| 00:52:09 |
I think I would look back |
| 00:52:11 |
we had a chance to save one |
| 00:52:25 |
A place that's intimidating in |
| 00:52:30 |
And it's so grand in scale |
| 00:52:34 |
around the entire planet. |
| 00:52:38 |
Everyone in the world |
| 00:52:39 |
in some way is tied |
| 00:52:42 |
And I think, in looking back, |
| 00:52:45 |
and we blew it. Humanity had a chance. |
| 00:52:51 |
A world warmer |
| 00:52:54 |
could finally tip the balance |
| 00:53:00 |
Nothing in our past prepares us |
| 00:53:07 |
a time when the rare |
| 00:53:10 |
becomes a common event. |
| 00:53:30 |
In a world warmer by three degrees, |
| 00:53:33 |
climate change could be manifest |
| 00:53:35 |
in the most violent weather |
| 00:53:42 |
People don't yet realize |
| 00:53:44 |
the changes |
| 00:53:47 |
could really lead to a different planet. |
| 00:53:59 |
As the oceans |
| 00:54:02 |
a new global climate pattern emerges |
| 00:54:05 |
mirroring the violent weather |
| 00:54:12 |
But in a three-degree world, |
| 00:54:14 |
those extreme conditions |
| 00:54:19 |
There's evidence for this in the past. |
| 00:54:23 |
Back in the Pliocene, for example, |
| 00:54:25 |
when it was about three degrees |
| 00:54:27 |
the whole ocean circulation pattern |
| 00:54:31 |
and there was essentially |
| 00:54:34 |
Normally the trade winds |
| 00:54:37 |
toward the western Pacific, |
| 00:54:41 |
along the coast |
| 00:54:44 |
El Nino turns that system |
| 00:54:48 |
The first signs are wild |
| 00:54:53 |
The trade winds weaken |
| 00:54:57 |
Warm water spreads east |
| 00:55:01 |
Torrential rains and flooding |
| 00:55:06 |
Indonesian rainforests |
| 00:55:09 |
experience extreme drought conditions. |
| 00:55:14 |
And many climate models include |
| 00:55:21 |
Continued warming could turbo-charge |
| 00:55:23 |
a new generation of super-storms. |
| 00:55:27 |
In a world which |
| 00:55:29 |
there's going to be a lot more |
| 00:55:32 |
to drive hurricanes. |
| 00:55:33 |
And hurricanes derive their rocket fuel |
| 00:55:36 |
from the warming of the ocean. |
| 00:55:40 |
scientists are still |
| 00:55:43 |
between global warming |
| 00:55:48 |
Lately they have seen |
| 00:55:52 |
Hurricanes are rated |
| 00:55:57 |
One study concludes, |
| 00:56:00 |
there have been |
| 00:56:05 |
The summer of 2005 would bring |
| 00:56:13 |
In late August, |
| 00:56:17 |
is dispatched over the Gulf of Mexico. |
| 00:56:20 |
A colossal storm is building |
| 00:56:22 |
and tracking straight |
| 00:56:28 |
Anyone left there has only |
| 00:56:37 |
By Sunday, August 28th, |
| 00:56:39 |
Katrina's winds reach |
| 00:56:47 |
Thermal imagery along the storm track |
| 00:56:52 |
Orange and red indicate |
| 00:56:55 |
to 82 degrees Fahrenheit, |
| 00:56:57 |
a full degree higher than normal. |
| 00:57:01 |
Dropping pressure within the eye wall |
| 00:57:04 |
is the fourth lowest ever recorded |
| 00:57:08 |
It revs Katrina even more. |
| 00:57:24 |
When Hurricane Katrina makes |
| 00:57:27 |
it unleashes a terrible fury. |
| 00:57:33 |
Within six hours, the storm |
| 00:57:37 |
But the destruction of |
| 00:57:40 |
transforming the natural disaster |
| 00:57:43 |
into a national tragedy. |
| 00:58:02 |
Jazz trumpeter Irvin Mayfield |
| 00:58:07 |
The storm surge and a breach |
| 00:58:10 |
sent eight feet ofwater |
| 00:58:15 |
His father stays |
| 00:58:18 |
His body won't be found for weeks. |
| 00:58:23 |
When someone |
| 00:58:25 |
theirjunior high school, |
| 00:58:28 |
their pictures, their video tapes, |
| 00:58:30 |
their clothes, their friend's house, |
| 00:58:33 |
their friend's mother's house, |
| 00:58:35 |
the place they had their first kiss, |
| 00:58:38 |
and some people lost loved ones. |
| 00:58:40 |
When you have all |
| 00:58:43 |
You can't imagine the type of tragedy, |
| 00:58:45 |
a city-wide catastrophe, |
| 00:58:47 |
not even rivaled |
| 00:58:51 |
Two years later, much |
| 00:58:55 |
The wreckage is still overwhelming. |
| 00:58:58 |
The recovery, still unfolding. |
| 00:59:02 |
It's impossible to directly link |
| 00:59:06 |
The process that forms |
| 00:59:09 |
But many in New Orleans want |
| 00:59:13 |
or worse, are in their future. |
| 00:59:18 |
After seeing what |
| 00:59:21 |
and what it's continuing to do today, |
| 00:59:23 |
you would think people would |
| 00:59:27 |
about figuring out |
| 00:59:30 |
and what that really means |
| 00:59:34 |
In 2005, Katrina seemed |
| 00:59:40 |
But if the planet warms |
| 00:59:43 |
we could be in for a new generation |
| 00:59:47 |
In a world which is warmer, |
| 00:59:50 |
a lot more energy to drive them. |
| 00:59:52 |
So the most powerful hurricanes |
| 00:59:54 |
which we currently see in today's |
| 00:59:57 |
We could see hurricanes |
| 00:59:58 |
which are half or more category |
| 01:00:03 |
Imagine it's decades later. |
| 01:00:06 |
New Orleans is looking down the barrel |
| 01:00:11 |
the first category-six storm |
| 01:00:40 |
What if Katrina is only a hint |
| 01:00:42 |
at the magnitude of destruction |
| 01:00:49 |
If the Earth reaches |
| 01:00:52 |
over the next 40 or 50 years, |
| 01:00:55 |
the planet's basic life-support systems |
| 01:00:58 |
could begin to break down. |
| 01:01:04 |
But beyond three degrees, |
| 01:01:07 |
becomes more and more speculative |
| 01:01:10 |
and more and more frightening. |
| 01:01:23 |
If the world warms by four degrees, |
| 01:01:25 |
oceans rise, overtaking |
| 01:01:30 |
home to a billion people. |
| 01:01:33 |
Bangladesh, washed away. |
| 01:01:36 |
Egypt, inundated. |
| 01:01:40 |
Venice, submerged. |
| 01:01:47 |
Glaciers disappear, shutting off |
| 01:01:51 |
to billions more. |
| 01:01:54 |
Northern Canada becomes |
| 01:01:55 |
one of the planet's most |
| 01:02:01 |
while a beach in Scandinavia |
| 01:02:08 |
The entire west Antarctic |
| 01:02:11 |
sending sea levels rising even further. |
| 01:02:15 |
This could be our world |
| 01:02:20 |
At four degrees, we really |
| 01:02:23 |
which is completely unrecognizable |
| 01:02:31 |
We would see the possible drying up |
| 01:02:34 |
of some of the most important |
| 01:02:37 |
and this will endanger the survival |
| 01:02:40 |
of tens and even hundreds |
| 01:02:46 |
if the planet |
| 01:02:49 |
one of its great rivers |
| 01:02:52 |
at both ends, |
| 01:02:54 |
from a high mountain glacier |
| 01:03:00 |
Locals call it "Mother Ganges," |
| 01:03:03 |
the holiest river in India, |
| 01:03:11 |
Millions of devout pilgrims |
| 01:03:13 |
in a mass ritual to celebrate |
| 01:03:18 |
when it is said, |
| 01:03:22 |
to save her people from drought. |
| 01:03:26 |
Himalayan rivers |
| 01:03:29 |
for over a billion people |
| 01:03:39 |
If Ganges is not there, |
| 01:03:42 |
it will be a desert in the world. |
| 01:03:46 |
climate scientists predict |
| 01:03:50 |
where the impact of global warming |
| 01:03:56 |
Unless we begin to slow global warming, |
| 01:03:59 |
in fewer than four decades, |
| 01:04:01 |
the Ganges could be a river |
| 01:04:11 |
The battle will be fought here |
| 01:04:14 |
in the vast crystalline ice fields |
| 01:04:17 |
of the Himalayan glaciers, |
| 01:04:20 |
the planet's largest store |
| 01:04:23 |
outside of the polar ice caps. |
| 01:04:27 |
Himalayan glaciers are receding, |
| 01:04:30 |
the fastest of any in the world. |
| 01:04:35 |
Few have ventured here, |
| 01:04:39 |
as often as one man. |
| 01:04:44 |
We used |
| 01:04:47 |
in a single night. |
| 01:04:49 |
Now you barely get one and a half |
| 01:04:53 |
during the entire season. |
| 01:04:59 |
The Ganges River will become a desert, |
| 01:05:02 |
and all you will see |
| 01:05:06 |
Not a thing of beauty. |
| 01:05:09 |
Swami Sundaranand, |
| 01:05:11 |
an 80-year-old holy man known |
| 01:05:15 |
has been photographing |
| 01:05:18 |
for 50 years. |
| 01:05:24 |
The first |
| 01:05:31 |
After 1962, I started to worry |
| 01:05:33 |
about the changes I was seeing |
| 01:05:40 |
I went to this glacier on foot in 1965, |
| 01:05:43 |
to the base of Meru Peak. |
| 01:05:49 |
When I went back after 15 years, |
| 01:05:56 |
When I saw the glacier receding, |
| 01:05:58 |
I became very worried |
| 01:06:03 |
If the holy Ganges is not |
| 01:06:07 |
the entire world will seem |
| 01:06:15 |
The swami's trove of icescapes |
| 01:06:17 |
documents 50 years of change |
| 01:06:31 |
Now NASA satellite imagery |
| 01:06:39 |
Side by side, the high |
| 01:06:42 |
tell a similar story, |
| 01:06:45 |
one that spells danger for the future. |
| 01:06:51 |
Literally following |
| 01:06:54 |
is a new generation of climbers, |
| 01:06:57 |
lured by the pilgrimage |
| 01:07:00 |
that gives the Ganges its life. |
| 01:07:05 |
When Nidish Shwama was a boy, |
| 01:07:07 |
his father was an early summiter |
| 01:07:13 |
Since the late '70s, |
| 01:07:14 |
he's climbed |
| 01:07:20 |
In 1978, this place, Borgwasa, |
| 01:07:24 |
there used to be a dense forest |
| 01:07:28 |
And now there is not a single tree. |
| 01:07:39 |
The glacier holds |
| 01:07:43 |
nearly five cubic miles' worth |
| 01:07:46 |
as it begins its descent |
| 01:07:52 |
This was all glacier once, |
| 01:07:54 |
before it started shrinking |
| 01:07:59 |
Just a century ago, |
| 01:08:01 |
this stone marked the edge |
| 01:08:04 |
that has retreated |
| 01:08:19 |
I am sad |
| 01:08:23 |
My father has seen this glacier. |
| 01:08:25 |
But probably maybe my children |
| 01:08:29 |
may not be able to see this, |
| 01:08:31 |
which is the most holiest thing |
| 01:08:38 |
If current trends continue, |
| 01:08:40 |
the next hundred years could wreak havoc |
| 01:08:45 |
transportation, mining |
| 01:08:54 |
At first, the melt might unleash |
| 01:08:59 |
But then, seasonal |
| 01:09:03 |
could strike year-round |
| 01:09:05 |
once the glacier vanishes completely. |
| 01:09:12 |
At the current rate of loss, |
| 01:09:14 |
there will be no more glaciers |
| 01:09:17 |
by the year 2035, |
| 01:09:20 |
dramatically reducing |
| 01:09:22 |
to more than a billion people. |
| 01:09:25 |
There are people |
| 01:09:29 |
from the glaciers. |
| 01:09:30 |
But most of them will be gone |
| 01:09:32 |
if we have global warming |
| 01:09:35 |
That will lead |
| 01:09:39 |
having to go and find |
| 01:09:41 |
Pretty scary stuff. |
| 01:09:44 |
At plus-four degrees, |
| 01:09:47 |
will face very different |
| 01:09:50 |
with only one thing in common: |
| 01:09:53 |
They will all be extreme. |
| 01:10:08 |
At four degrees ofwarming, |
| 01:10:10 |
sea level could be rising |
| 01:10:13 |
as the world's great coastal |
| 01:10:19 |
Among them, the largest |
| 01:10:23 |
in the United States. |
| 01:10:26 |
Surrounded by water, |
| 01:10:27 |
New York will no longer seem |
| 01:10:31 |
if it's up against storm surges |
| 01:10:42 |
This is federal hall here, |
| 01:10:47 |
We're probably at about |
| 01:10:51 |
At plus four degrees, |
| 01:10:57 |
So now we're moving |
| 01:11:01 |
Armed with elevation maps |
| 01:11:04 |
professor of geophysics |
| 01:11:07 |
and one of his graduate students |
| 01:11:09 |
plot the course |
| 01:11:12 |
through New York's financial district. |
| 01:11:16 |
Could be massive flooding |
| 01:11:18 |
in parts of New York City, parts of |
| 01:11:23 |
That could be the flood line |
| 01:11:25 |
for a category-three hurricane |
| 01:11:28 |
a direct hit on New York City. |
| 01:11:34 |
Even a category-two |
| 01:11:37 |
could submerge the financial |
| 01:11:43 |
New York is supremely vulnerable, |
| 01:11:46 |
and especially, below the city streets, |
| 01:11:49 |
where much of the city's |
| 01:11:54 |
The utilities |
| 01:11:56 |
are all buried underground, |
| 01:11:58 |
electric, water, |
| 01:11:59 |
and one of the most extensive |
| 01:12:04 |
Without them, the city |
| 01:12:09 |
The subway system |
| 01:12:12 |
We pump almost ten million |
| 01:12:15 |
out of our subway system. |
| 01:12:17 |
We are in many cases the lowest |
| 01:12:21 |
lower than the sewer system. |
| 01:12:24 |
If millions |
| 01:12:28 |
into New York's subway system |
| 01:12:30 |
imagine the scope of the problem |
| 01:12:35 |
For New York City, the problem |
| 01:12:41 |
They have brought in |
| 01:12:44 |
most technologically advanced agencies |
| 01:12:46 |
to assess the impact |
| 01:12:51 |
This NASA team uses |
| 01:12:54 |
the same way generals calculate |
| 01:12:57 |
These are war games. |
| 01:13:01 |
New York City versus a super-storm surge |
| 01:13:04 |
as sea levels continue to rise. |
| 01:13:07 |
We don't necessarily |
| 01:13:10 |
here in a major city like New York |
| 01:13:12 |
of, say, a one- or two-foot |
| 01:13:14 |
but we do notice it |
| 01:13:17 |
People's houses are gonna be flooded. |
| 01:13:22 |
Computer simulations |
| 01:13:25 |
in the wrong place at the wrong time. |
| 01:13:36 |
For a long time, |
| 01:13:39 |
on the catastrophic 100-year event. |
| 01:13:43 |
In a world warmer by four degrees, |
| 01:13:45 |
they could come |
| 01:13:52 |
Not just talking |
| 01:13:55 |
We're talking about huge dislocations, |
| 01:14:03 |
If a mega-storm hits |
| 01:14:05 |
on top of a major sea level rise, |
| 01:14:08 |
it will mean destruction |
| 01:14:23 |
Parts of the city could be |
| 01:14:33 |
One thing is clear, |
| 01:14:35 |
unless we limit the impact |
| 01:14:37 |
major coastal cities will have to spend |
| 01:14:40 |
many billions of dollars |
| 01:14:45 |
Various kinds offlood barriers |
| 01:14:47 |
are already on the drawing board, |
| 01:14:49 |
including colossal sea gates |
| 01:14:51 |
that can be opened and closed |
| 01:14:56 |
New York would have to build |
| 01:15:01 |
One around |
| 01:15:03 |
blocking the entrance to the harbor. |
| 01:15:05 |
Another behind Staten Island. |
| 01:15:08 |
And a third blocking |
| 01:15:12 |
Anticipating a storm surge, |
| 01:15:14 |
massively powerful hydraulic engines |
| 01:15:16 |
rotate gates weighing thousands of tons, |
| 01:15:19 |
30 feet out of the water |
| 01:15:26 |
These sea barriers on the Thames |
| 01:15:28 |
cost Great Britain |
| 01:15:31 |
but they're protecting London |
| 01:15:33 |
more and more frequently every year. |
| 01:15:37 |
At least major industrial nations |
| 01:15:40 |
have the option |
| 01:15:43 |
with the technology |
| 01:15:46 |
and the resources to pay for it. |
| 01:15:52 |
It's likely to be a very different story |
| 01:15:54 |
in poorer countries, |
| 01:15:57 |
of the greenhouse gases |
| 01:16:02 |
Can you dike |
| 01:16:06 |
And I think that's what we |
| 01:16:09 |
Dr. Rajendra Pauchari |
| 01:16:11 |
chairs the Nobel-prize-winning |
| 01:16:16 |
I'm worried all the time |
| 01:16:17 |
at the direction that the world |
| 01:16:22 |
In this day and age, |
| 01:16:28 |
At the upper limits, |
| 01:16:31 |
the effects of climate change |
| 01:16:36 |
Beyond that, |
| 01:16:39 |
could become a reality. |
| 01:16:48 |
If the world warms five degrees, |
| 01:16:53 |
spread into once-temperate regions |
| 01:16:56 |
of the northern |
| 01:16:58 |
Snow-pack and aquifers |
| 01:17:03 |
Los Angeles, Cairo, Lima, Bombay, |
| 01:17:09 |
Climate refugees number |
| 01:17:14 |
This could be our world |
| 01:17:18 |
I think in a world |
| 01:17:21 |
five degrees, |
| 01:17:24 |
that human civilization can withstand |
| 01:17:27 |
that kind of a climatic shock. |
| 01:17:35 |
Now we enter |
| 01:17:39 |
a nightmare vision of life on Earth. |
| 01:17:45 |
Perhaps most frightening of all is |
| 01:17:47 |
how much we can't know. |
| 01:17:52 |
Traditional social systems |
| 01:18:03 |
It's the poor everywhere |
| 01:18:07 |
because if you take the example |
| 01:18:10 |
which I'm not saying |
| 01:18:12 |
by human-induced climate change, |
| 01:18:14 |
who were the worst sufferers |
| 01:18:17 |
The poorest of the poor, |
| 01:18:21 |
The best way |
| 01:18:24 |
of a hotter planet is to prevent it |
| 01:18:29 |
Failing that, we may be confronting |
| 01:18:32 |
far more difficult choices. |
| 01:18:36 |
The survivor |
| 01:18:40 |
Mobility is the key. You've got to |
| 01:18:44 |
If you think that you can hunker |
| 01:18:48 |
Aton Edwards |
| 01:18:51 |
offering personal preparedness training |
| 01:18:53 |
designed to survive disasters |
| 01:18:58 |
Katrina was our lesson. |
| 01:19:00 |
But Katrina was a lesson that's |
| 01:19:05 |
Edwards is convinced |
| 01:19:08 |
of planning ahead |
| 01:19:11 |
His gadgets are low-tech but effective. |
| 01:19:15 |
In New York City, because |
| 01:19:18 |
that you've got to move through, |
| 01:19:22 |
I carry mine with me all the time. |
| 01:19:24 |
It's not likely we'll reach |
| 01:19:28 |
but Edwards has prepared everything he |
| 01:19:34 |
And what we have here |
| 01:19:38 |
That means you're going to basically |
| 01:19:42 |
So you need everything that you |
| 01:19:45 |
If the worst should happen, |
| 01:19:47 |
Edwards is ready to become |
| 01:19:50 |
carrying what he needs on his back, |
| 01:19:52 |
living off the resources |
| 01:19:55 |
A first aid kit.. |
| 01:19:59 |
You can put five gallons |
| 01:20:01 |
Regular old ramen noodles. |
| 01:20:03 |
Old military mess kit. |
| 01:20:05 |
This is a six-person tent. |
| 01:20:07 |
People don't think that you can actually |
| 01:20:13 |
There is no more permanence. They |
| 01:20:17 |
from the dictionary at this point. |
| 01:20:20 |
It's all about mobility. |
| 01:20:25 |
If we allow global warming |
| 01:20:29 |
I really see a situation where we have |
| 01:20:33 |
as the people who remain |
| 01:20:36 |
fight it out with each other for what |
| 01:20:42 |
And it can get even worse. |
| 01:20:50 |
If the world warms |
| 01:20:53 |
from a distance, the oceans |
| 01:20:58 |
But they are marine wastelands. |
| 01:21:05 |
Deserts march across continents |
| 01:21:11 |
Natural disasters |
| 01:21:17 |
Some of the world's great cities |
| 01:21:23 |
This could be our world |
| 01:21:28 |
Warmings of six degrees over |
| 01:21:32 |
with some of the most devastating mass |
| 01:21:36 |
It's fair to assume |
| 01:21:40 |
within less than a century |
| 01:21:41 |
that we're going to face nothing |
| 01:21:48 |
Six degrees ofwarming has |
| 01:21:53 |
Our lives would never be the same again. |
| 01:21:59 |
But it's not all doom and gloom, yet. |
| 01:22:04 |
Most experts believe we can |
| 01:22:08 |
Right now, the average temperature |
| 01:22:14 |
But we don't have much time. |
| 01:22:19 |
Two degrees hotter puts us on the brink |
| 01:22:21 |
of runaway global warming, |
| 01:22:24 |
when it could dramatically |
| 01:22:30 |
The scientific reality |
| 01:22:33 |
if at all possible, |
| 01:22:36 |
within the next ten years, by 2015. |
| 01:22:40 |
And this, of course, |
| 01:22:43 |
We're talking about turning |
| 01:22:46 |
for most of humanity |
| 01:22:51 |
For anyone looking for |
| 01:22:56 |
This is the Cohen residence, |
| 01:22:59 |
a pleasant three-bedroom |
| 01:23:03 |
But lurking beneath the surface, |
| 01:23:05 |
an energy-eating monster. |
| 01:23:12 |
More than half the electricity |
| 01:23:15 |
goes into buildings |
| 01:23:23 |
Many homes waste |
| 01:23:30 |
A team of eco-detectives is |
| 01:23:34 |
for crimes against the climate. |
| 01:23:37 |
This innocent-looking thing |
| 01:23:40 |
eats a whole lot of money. |
| 01:23:41 |
When I feel this much cold |
| 01:23:46 |
I know that the insulation |
| 01:23:47 |
is really not as thick |
| 01:23:52 |
Oh, what have we here? |
| 01:23:54 |
Climate change is a problem |
| 01:23:57 |
and it's cheaper not to. |
| 01:24:00 |
ForAmory Lovins, |
| 01:24:06 |
reducing the use of energy |
| 01:24:11 |
Once people understand |
| 01:24:12 |
that climate protection |
| 01:24:15 |
because you don't have to buy fuel, |
| 01:24:17 |
political resistance is going |
| 01:24:20 |
Do you see that little red light |
| 01:24:23 |
Lovins is a sort |
| 01:24:26 |
hell-bent on killing wasted watts. |
| 01:24:28 |
If you have all kinds |
| 01:24:31 |
your TV, your VCR, your DVD, et cetera, |
| 01:24:34 |
that have that little light on... |
| 01:24:36 |
Yes. |
| 01:24:37 |
...they're using electricity.. |
| 01:24:40 |
109 watts. |
| 01:24:43 |
Almost 60 bucks a year, |
| 01:24:47 |
If every household in the |
| 01:24:51 |
we could eliminate at least |
| 01:24:59 |
Lovins doesn'tjust talk the talk. |
| 01:25:02 |
He lives in a house he designed |
| 01:25:06 |
in Aspen, Colorado, |
| 01:25:08 |
where temperatures in winter |
| 01:25:13 |
We're at 7,100 feet here.. |
| 01:25:17 |
You can get frost any day of the year, |
| 01:25:19 |
and we can get 39 days |
| 01:25:25 |
Lovins' house is a mix |
| 01:25:27 |
of high-technology |
| 01:25:33 |
Solar units on the roof |
| 01:25:35 |
produce more electricity |
| 01:25:40 |
The entire house runs |
| 01:25:45 |
slightly more than a single light bulb. |
| 01:25:48 |
Energy efficiency |
| 01:25:53 |
to solve the climate problem, |
| 01:25:56 |
and to make a safer, richer, |
| 01:26:02 |
Next to our homes, |
| 01:26:04 |
the second largest source |
| 01:26:08 |
is parked right outside. |
| 01:26:11 |
Cars produce nearly 20 percent |
| 01:26:17 |
Nowhere is the problem |
| 01:26:20 |
more urgent than in |
| 01:26:23 |
especially China. |
| 01:26:32 |
Rising affluence has paved the way |
| 01:26:34 |
to many of the perks |
| 01:26:38 |
like owning a car. |
| 01:26:43 |
The numbers are staggering. |
| 01:26:46 |
So are the emissions. |
| 01:26:49 |
Fourteen thousand new cars |
| 01:26:57 |
I don't think we can |
| 01:27:00 |
and say, "I'm sorry, we need |
| 01:27:03 |
The rich countries have |
| 01:27:06 |
and we have to cut our emissions |
| 01:27:09 |
in order to allow some room |
| 01:27:13 |
To keep warming below |
| 01:27:17 |
we need to cut seven billion tons |
| 01:27:23 |
Doubling the average |
| 01:27:26 |
from 15 miles per gallon to 30 |
| 01:27:28 |
would save one billion tons. |
| 01:27:33 |
But we would still need |
| 01:27:35 |
from our carbon footprint |
| 01:27:37 |
to stay on the safe side |
| 01:27:43 |
We have an arsenal |
| 01:27:46 |
It's going to be solar, wind, |
| 01:27:47 |
and it's going to be tidal power |
| 01:27:50 |
All of these different things |
| 01:27:53 |
actually give us a pretty good ability |
| 01:27:55 |
to get away from |
| 01:28:02 |
They look like |
| 01:28:06 |
marching across the landscape. |
| 01:28:10 |
Wind power and windmills |
| 01:28:16 |
With today's technology, |
| 01:28:19 |
one wind turbine can power |
| 01:28:24 |
They're a 100 percent clean |
| 01:28:29 |
But wind power is no panacea. |
| 01:28:33 |
The fuel is free, |
| 01:28:36 |
and we're seeing a lot |
| 01:28:40 |
And, of course, |
| 01:28:44 |
On a global level, it would take |
| 01:28:46 |
more than two million wind turbines |
| 01:28:49 |
to replace coal power plants |
| 01:28:55 |
The ultimate answer may be |
| 01:29:01 |
But the problem |
| 01:29:03 |
With each passing year, |
| 01:29:09 |
The future will test |
| 01:29:17 |
These are still the early days |
| 01:29:22 |
The longer we wait to do |
| 01:29:25 |
the harder it will be to solve, |
| 01:29:32 |
and more global cooperation. |
| 01:29:37 |
An international team |
| 01:29:40 |
is already started, attempting the |
| 01:29:46 |
Nuclear fusion. |
| 01:29:50 |
They're building a fusion reactor |
| 01:29:54 |
in the solar system, |
| 01:29:56 |
the sun. |
| 01:29:59 |
Harnessing that same power could mean |
| 01:30:01 |
a virtually limitless |
| 01:30:05 |
without producing |
| 01:30:09 |
This energy |
| 01:30:11 |
powers most of the stars |
| 01:30:14 |
So, what we're trying to do here |
| 01:30:16 |
is to replicate |
| 01:30:19 |
and use this amount of energy |
| 01:30:23 |
It won't be easy. |
| 01:30:25 |
With the volatile gases involved, |
| 01:30:27 |
engineers can't work directly |
| 01:30:32 |
They depend |
| 01:30:36 |
some of the smartest |
| 01:30:39 |
to work |
| 01:30:47 |
The core of the reactor will be |
| 01:30:54 |
A powerful magnetic field |
| 01:30:58 |
and prevents it from melting |
| 01:31:04 |
Even if it works, |
| 01:31:07 |
the reactor won't produce |
| 01:31:09 |
for at least another 30 years. |
| 01:31:14 |
As ambitious as it may be, |
| 01:31:17 |
fusion may appear |
| 01:31:22 |
Imagine outer space filled |
| 01:31:28 |
One current research project |
| 01:31:32 |
each about three feet across, |
| 01:31:36 |
to lower the Earth's temperature. |
| 01:31:44 |
It's no good sitting around |
| 01:31:48 |
some fantastical new source |
| 01:31:50 |
or a solar mirror which is going |
| 01:31:54 |
to keep us tolerably cool. |
| 01:31:56 |
The reality is that we have |
| 01:31:59 |
and have to do it within ten years. |
| 01:32:02 |
With or without us, |
| 01:32:05 |
an excellentjob |
| 01:32:10 |
The planet has both |
| 01:32:13 |
to deal with global warming. |
| 01:32:17 |
It's done it before. |
| 01:32:21 |
Global heating also spiked |
| 01:32:24 |
between 144 and 65 million years ago. |
| 01:32:31 |
It is the age of dinosaurs. |
| 01:32:33 |
The climate is changing |
| 01:32:36 |
over millions of years, |
| 01:32:38 |
giving many species a fighting chance |
| 01:32:49 |
A period of extreme volcanic activity |
| 01:32:51 |
floods the atmosphere |
| 01:32:54 |
sending the average |
| 01:33:00 |
It takes millions of years, |
| 01:33:02 |
but nature scrubs all that extra |
| 01:33:07 |
It's absorbed through |
| 01:33:10 |
in the oceans and plants, |
| 01:33:12 |
and buried deep in the Earth. |
| 01:33:16 |
Then, over millions |
| 01:33:23 |
Billions of tons of carbon |
| 01:33:25 |
infused with the power of the sun |
| 01:33:27 |
were buried throughout |
| 01:33:33 |
Those fossils sunk deep underground, |
| 01:33:35 |
producing enormous reserves |
| 01:33:42 |
That's where the CO2 nightmare |
| 01:33:46 |
and ours began. |
| 01:33:49 |
It's the final irony of global warming. |
| 01:33:54 |
The very same carbon that was scrubbed |
| 01:33:58 |
is now being pumped back into the air |
| 01:34:01 |
every time we burn those fossil fuels. |
| 01:34:04 |
And it's warming the planet |
| 01:34:09 |
Humans come along, |
| 01:34:11 |
we find it's an incredibly |
| 01:34:14 |
and without thinking about it, |
| 01:34:17 |
and return this carbon back to the |
| 01:34:21 |
In effect, we're reproducing |
| 01:34:23 |
the extreme conditions |
| 01:34:27 |
Only this time, at breakneck speeds, |
| 01:34:31 |
so quickly that most species |
| 01:34:36 |
and survive. |
| 01:34:40 |
The world's appetite for energy |
| 01:34:44 |
Our carbon footprint is staggering. |
| 01:34:50 |
As global warming escalates, |
| 01:34:56 |
At some point, climate change |
| 01:35:00 |
and global warming would |
| 01:35:05 |
The only question is, |
| 01:35:07 |
now that we know about it, |
| 01:35:13 |
Even the worst-case scenarios |
| 01:35:17 |
won't mean the end |
| 01:35:23 |
But the planet after |
| 01:35:26 |
would be radically different |
| 01:35:32 |
How bad could it get? |
| 01:35:34 |
At that point, the best minds |
| 01:35:39 |
Theyjust don't know, |
| 01:35:41 |
and they hope we'll never find out. |
