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Great Global Warming Swindle The
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Downloaded From www.moviesubtitles.org |
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When people say we don't believe |
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I say no, I believe in global warming, |
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I don't believe that human CO2 |
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A few years ago, |
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I would tell you it's CO2. |
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Because just like everyone |
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I listen to what the media have to say. |
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Each day, the news reports |
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politicians no longer dare to express |
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There is such intolerance... |
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of any dissenting voice... |
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...some of the worst climate |
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This is the most pollitically |
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is to doubt this climate |
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Climate change has gone |
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it is a new kind of morality. |
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The Prime Minister is back |
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unrepentant and unembarrassed |
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Yes, as the frenzy of a man-made |
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many senior climate scientists |
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basis for the theory is crumbling. |
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There were periods for example |
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when we had three times as |
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or periods when we had ten times |
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and if CO2 has a large effect on climate |
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then you should see it in the |
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If we look at climate from |
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We would never suspect CO2 |
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None of the major climate changes |
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...can be explained by CO2. |
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You can't say that CO2 |
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It surely never did in the past. |
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I've often heard it's said that there is |
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...on the global warming issue |
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catastrophic changes |
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Well, I am one scientist and |
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...think that is not true. |
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Man-made global warming |
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This morning, the Intergovernmental |
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It is presented in the media as |
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of an impressive international organization: |
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"From the IPCC..." |
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The United Nations Intergovernmental |
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The IPCC, line any UN body, |
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the final conclusions |
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This claim, that the IPCC is the world's |
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or two thousand five hundred scientists... |
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you look at the bibliographies of the |
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There are quite a number |
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And to build the number up |
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they had to start taking group reviewers |
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anyone who ever came |
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and none of them are asked |
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Those people who are specialists |
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and resigned (and there have |
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they are simply put |
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and become part of these two thousand |
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People have decided they have |
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that since no scientist desagrees, |
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But that, whenever you |
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that's pure propaganda. |
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This is the story of how |
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...turned into a political ideology. |
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I don't even like to call it the |
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because really it is a |
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and they have become hugely |
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It is the story of the distortion |
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Climate scientists need there to be |
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We have a vested interest in |
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money will flow to climate science. |
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There's one thing you |
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this might not be a problem. |
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It is the story of how a |
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...turned into a burocratic |
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The fact to the matter is that |
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...depend upon global |
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It's a big business. |
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It's become a great |
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and if the whole global |
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there would be an awful |
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out of jobs and looking |
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This is a story of censorship |
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I've seen and heard that |
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who might |
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which is not the scientific way. |
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It is the story of Westeners invoking |
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to hinder vital industrial |
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One clear thing that emerges from |
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is the point that there's somebody |
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And the African dream is to develop. |
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The environmental movement has evolved |
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for preventing development |
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The global warming story |
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...of how a media scare became |
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The whole global warming business |
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and people who disagree |
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I'm a heretic. |
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The makers of this program, |
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In 2005, a House of Lords enquiry |
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the scientific evidence of |
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A leading figure in that enquiry |
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who as Chancellor of the Exchequer |
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to commit government money |
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We had a very very thorough |
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from a whole lot of people expert |
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What surprised me was to discover how |
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In fact, there are more and |
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some of them a little bit frightened |
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but who quietly privately and |
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"hang on, wait a minute: |
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We are told that the Earth's |
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but the Earth's climate |
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In Earth's long history, there have |
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when it was much warmer |
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when much of the world was |
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or else vasts ice sheets. |
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The climate has always changed, |
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from us, humans. |
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We can trace the present warming |
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to the end of a very cold |
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This cold spell? |
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It's known to climatologists |
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In the 14th century, Europe |
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and when we look for evidences of this, |
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and pictures of old father Thames |
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because during the hardest and |
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the Thames would freeze over |
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held on the Thames |
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selling things on the ice. |
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If we look back further in time, |
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We find a barmy golden era |
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when temperatures where |
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a time known to climatologists |
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It's important people know |
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a quite different lifestyle |
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We have this view today that warming is |
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In fact, wherever you describe |
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it appears to be associated |
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In Europe, this was the great age |
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a time when, according to Chaucer, |
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vineyards flourished even |
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All over the City on London there |
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that grew in the medieval warm period, |
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So this was a wonderfully rich time. |
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And this little church, in a |
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as it comes from a period |
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Going back in time further still, |
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we find more warm spells? |
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including a very prolonged period |
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known to geologists as |
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where temperatures were significantly... |
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higher than they are now |
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If we go back 8000 years |
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our current interglacial, who is |
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now the polar bears obviously |
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they are with us today |
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they are very adaptable and |
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(we call hipsy thermals), |
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Climate variation in the |
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so why do we think is |
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In the current alarm about |
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the culprit is industrial society. |
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Thanks to modern industry luxuries |
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are now available in abundance |
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Novel technologies have made |
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modern transport and communications |
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...seem less foreign and distant. |
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Industrial progress has |
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But has it also changed |
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According to the theory of |
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industrial growth should cause |
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but does it? |
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Anyone who goes around and says |
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...of the warming of the 20th century... |
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hasn't looked at the |
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Industrial production in the early |
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...was still in its infancy restricted |
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handicapped by war and |
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After the Second World War |
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Consumer goods like refrigerators and |
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began to be mass-produced |
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Historians call this global |
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the post-war economic boom. |
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So how does the industrial story |
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Since the mid 19th century |
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has risen by just of a |
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But this warming began |
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and planes were even invented: |
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What's more, most of the rise in |
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during the period when |
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was relatively insignificant. |
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After the Second Wold War, |
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during the post-war economic boom, |
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temperatures, in theory, |
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but they didn't, |
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not for one or two years, |
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In fact, paradoxically, it wasn't |
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economic recession in the 1970's |
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CO2 began increase |
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but the temperature actually |
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continued to about 1975 |
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When the CO2 increasing rapidly |
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then we cannot say that CO2 |
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Temperature went up significantly |
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...when human production |
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and then in the post war years, |
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and the whole economies |
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and human production |
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the global temperature |
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In other words: the facts |
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Trusted time when, |
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after the Second World War |
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CO2 was increasing and yet |
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and starting off scares of |
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it made absolutely no sense, |
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Why do we suppose that CO2 is |
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CO2 forms only a very small |
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In fact we measure changes |
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in tenths of parts per million. |
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If you take CO2 as a percentage |
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--the Oxygen, the Nitrogen |
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...is 0.054 percent |
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and it's an incredibly small portion |
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and then of course you've got |
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that supposedly humans are adding |
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(which is the focus of all the concern) |
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and it gets even smaller. |
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Although CO2 is a greenhouse gas, |
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greenhouse gases themselves only |
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What's more, CO2 is a relatively |
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The atmosphere is made up |
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a small percentage of them |
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and of that very small percentage |
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a 95% of it is water vapour, it's the |
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Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, by |
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So is there any way of checking whether |
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to an increase in greenhouse gas? |
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There is only one way to tell and |
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or a part of the sky known to |
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If it's greenhouse warming, |
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in the middle of the troposphere |
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(the first 10-12 km of the atmosphere) |
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than you do at the surface. |
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There are good theoretical |
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having to do with how |
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The greenhouse effect |
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the Sun sends its heat |
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if it weren't for greenhouse gases, |
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this solar radiation would |
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leaving the planet cold |
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Greenhouse gas traps the scaping |
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a few miles above the surface. |
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And it's here, according |
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the rate of warming should be highest |
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if it's greenhouse gas |
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All the models, everyone of them, |
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calculates that the warming |
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as you go up from the surface |
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That in fact the maximum warming |
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over the Equator should take place |
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A scientist largely responsible |
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in the Earth's atmosphere |
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In 1991 he was awarded NASA's medal |
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and in 1996 received a special award from |
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for fundamentally advancing |
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He was a lead author... |
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on the UN's Intergovernmental |
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There are two ways to take |
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in the Earth's atmosphere: |
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What we found consistently is that, |
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the bulk of the atmosphere |
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we see at the surface in this region. |
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And that's a real head |
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because the theory is |
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and the theory says that |
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the upper atmosphere |
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The rise in temperature of that |
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...is not very dramatic at all and |
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...that climate models are |
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One of the problems thas is plaguing |
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as you go up through the atmosphere |
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that the rate of warming increases |
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and it's quite clear, from two datasets, |
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not just satellite data |
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which everybody talks about, |
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that you dont' see that effect. |
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In fact it looks like the surface |
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more than the upper air temperatures: |
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that's a big difference!! |
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That data gives you a handle |
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is warming that probably is |
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That is, the observations do not |
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In fact, most observations show a slight |
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So in that sense you can say that the |
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is falsified by the evidence. |
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So the recent warming of |
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...in the wrong place and |
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Most of the warming took place |
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and ocurred mostly at |
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the very opposite of what |
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according to the theory of |
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I am Al Gore, I used to be Vicepresident |
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Former Vicepresident Al Gore's |
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...is regarded by many as the definite |
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of the man-made global warming. |
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His argument rests on one all |
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taken from icecore surveys in which |
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to look back into Earth's |
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hundreds of thousands of years. |
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The first icecore survey took place |
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what it found, as Al Gore |
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...was a clear correlation |
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We're going back in time |
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Here's what the temperature |
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Now one thing that comes and jumps |
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(most ridiculous thing |
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The relationship is actually |
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but there is one relationship |
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than all the others and it is this: |
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when there's more CO2 the |
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Al Gore says the relationship |
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...and CO2 is complicated |
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but he doesn't say what |
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In fact, there was something |
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in the icecore data that |
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Professor Clark is a leading Arctic |
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into the Earth's temperature record |
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When we look at the climate |
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we're looking for |
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that actually records climate. |
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If we were to take an ice sample |
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to reconstruct temperature but the |
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in that ice we liberate it and |
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Professor Clark and others |
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as Al Gore says, |
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a link between CO2 |
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But what al Gore doesn't say... |
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is that the link is the |
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So here we're looking at the |
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and in the red we see temperature |
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to later time at a very key interval |
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when we came out of a glaciation. |
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And we see the temperature going up |
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CO2 lags behind that increase. |
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It's got a 800 year lag... |
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...so temperature is leading |
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There have now been several |
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everyone of them shows |
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the temperature rises or falls, |
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after a few hundred years, |
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So obviously, CO2 is not the |
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In fact we can say that the warming |
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CO2 clearly cannot be causing |
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it's a product of temperature. |
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it's following temperature |
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The icecore record goes |
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...of the problem we have here. |
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They said: "if the CO2 increases |
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...as a greenhouse gas, |
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But the icecore record |
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so the fundamental assumption, |
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...of the whole theory |
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...due tu humans, |
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But how can it be that |
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to more CO2 in the atmosphere? |
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To understand this, |
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the obvious point that CO2 |
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...produced by all living things. |
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Few things annoy me more |
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talking about CO2 |
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you are made of CO2, |
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CO2 is how living things grow. |
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What's more, humans are not |
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Humans produce a small fraction |
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of the CO2 that it is produced |
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Volcanos produce more CO2 each year |
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and other sources of man-made |
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More still comes from |
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which produce about a 150 |
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compared to a mere 6.5 |
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An even larger source of CO2 |
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from falling leaves for example |
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But the biggest source of CO2 |
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Carl Wunsch is Professor |
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He was also a Visiting Professor... |
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...in Oceanography |
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...and University College in London, |
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in Mathematics and Physics |
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He's the author of four major |
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The ocean is the major |
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...when it comes out |
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or to, from which it is readmitted |
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If you heat the surface of the |
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So similarly if you cool |
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...the ocean can dissolve |
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So the warmer the oceans, |
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and the cooler they are, |
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But why is there a timelag |
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between a change in temperature |
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...going into or out of the sea? |
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The reason is that oceans |
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they take literally hundreds |
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...to warm up and to cool down. |
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This timelag means the oceans |
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...a memory of temperature changes. |
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The ocean has a memory of past events, |
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running out as far as |
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so for example if somebody says: |
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"Oh, I'm seeing changes |
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...this must mean that the |
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it may only mean that |
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...in a remote part of the ocean |
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whose effects are now beginning |
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The current warming |
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...before people had cars |
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In the past 150 years, |
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the temperature has risen |
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But most of that rise |
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Since that time, the |
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has fallen for four decades, |
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There's no evidence at all... |
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...from Earth's long |
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...that CO2 has ever determined |
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But if CO2 doesn't drive |
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The common belief that CO2 |
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is at odds with much of |
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Data from weather |
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from icecore surveys and from |
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But if CO2 isn't driving climate, |
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Isn't it bizarre the thing |
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you know when we're filling apart car, |
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that we are the ones |
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Just look in the sky, look at |
| 00:26:20 |
Even humans, at |
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are minute relative to that. |
| 00:26:29 |
In the late 1980's, solar physicist |
| 00:26:33 |
a radically new way of |
| 00:26:37 |
Despite the huge resources |
| 00:26:40 |
Corbin's new technique consistently |
| 00:26:45 |
He was held in the national press |
| 00:26:50 |
The secret of his success |
| 00:26:54 |
The origin of solar weather technique |
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came originally from study of sunspots |
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and the desire to predict those, |
| 00:27:02 |
...and then I realized there was |
| 00:27:05 |
...to use the Sun to |
| 00:27:14 |
Sunspots, we now know, |
| 00:27:17 |
...which appear at times |
| 00:27:22 |
But for many hundreds of years, |
| 00:27:24 |
long before this was |
| 00:27:26 |
the astronomers around |
| 00:27:28 |
...the number of |
| 00:27:30 |
...that more spots |
| 00:27:34 |
In 1893 the British astronomer |
| 00:27:38 |
that during the Little Ice Age |
| 00:27:41 |
any spots visible on the Sun. |
| 00:27:43 |
A period of solar inactivity |
| 00:27:47 |
...the Maunder Minimum. |
| 00:27:49 |
But how reliable are sunspots |
| 00:27:55 |
I decided to test it by gambling |
| 00:27:59 |
against what the Met Office |
| 00:28:02 |
a normal expectation. |
| 00:28:04 |
And I won money month after |
| 00:28:08 |
Last winter the Met Office |
| 00:28:12 |
...or would be an |
| 00:28:15 |
We said: "no, that is nonsense, |
| 00:28:18 |
and we specifically said |
| 00:28:22 |
after Christmas and February: |
| 00:28:26 |
In 1991, senior scientists of the |
| 00:28:30 |
decided to compile a record |
| 00:28:34 |
and compare it with the |
| 00:28:38 |
What they found, was an |
| 00:28:41 |
between what the |
| 00:28:43 |
and changes in temperature |
| 00:28:46 |
Solar activity they found |
| 00:28:51 |
fell back for four decades |
| 00:28:54 |
...and then rose again after that. |
| 00:29:00 |
When we saw this correlation... |
| 00:29:03 |
between the temperature and |
| 00:29:08 |
then the people said to us: |
| 00:29:10 |
"OK, it can be just a coincidence", |
| 00:29:12 |
so how can we prove that |
| 00:29:16 |
Well, one obvious thing is |
| 00:29:19 |
...or different timeseries |
| 00:29:24 |
So Professor Friis Christensen |
| 00:29:27 |
...four hundreds years |
| 00:29:30 |
to compare sunspot activity... |
| 00:29:32 |
...against temperature variation. |
| 00:29:35 |
Once again, they found... |
| 00:29:36 |
that variations in solar activity... |
| 00:29:38 |
were intimate linked... |
| 00:29:39 |
...to temperature |
| 00:29:42 |
It was the Sun, it seemed, |
| 00:29:46 |
that was driving changes |
| 00:29:50 |
In a way, it's not surprising: |
| 00:29:52 |
the Sun affects us directly... |
| 00:29:54 |
...of course when it |
| 00:29:57 |
But we now know... |
| 00:29:58 |
the Sun also affects |
| 00:30:03 |
Clouds have a powerful cooling effect, |
| 00:30:06 |
but how are they formed? |
| 00:30:07 |
In the early 20th century |
| 00:30:10 |
the Earth was constantly |
| 00:30:12 |
...by subatomic particles. |
| 00:30:15 |
These particles, which |
| 00:30:18 |
originated (it was believed) |
| 00:30:22 |
far beyond our Solar System. |
| 00:30:25 |
When the particles coming down |
| 00:30:27 |
meet water vapour rising |
| 00:30:29 |
they form water droplets |
| 00:30:33 |
But when the Sun |
| 00:30:35 |
and the solar wind is strong, |
| 00:30:37 |
fewer particles get through |
| 00:30:44 |
Just how powerful |
| 00:30:46 |
became clear only recently, |
| 00:30:48 |
when an astrophysicist, |
| 00:30:51 |
...decided to compare |
| 00:30:53 |
of cloud-forming |
| 00:30:55 |
with the temperature record |
| 00:30:58 |
Professor Jan Veizer... |
| 00:30:59 |
...going back six hundred |
| 00:31:03 |
What they found was that |
| 00:31:06 |
...the temperature went down; |
| 00:31:08 |
when cosmic rays went down, |
| 00:31:12 |
Clouds and the Earth's climate |
| 00:31:16 |
To see how close, |
| 00:31:19 |
We just compared the graph, |
| 00:31:21 |
just put them one upon the other |
| 00:31:23 |
and it was just amazing |
| 00:31:26 |
We have very explosive data here. |
| 00:31:29 |
I've never seen such a |
| 00:31:33 |
coming together |
| 00:31:35 |
to show really what's happening |
| 00:31:39 |
The climate was controlled |
| 00:31:42 |
The clouds were controlled |
| 00:31:45 |
and the cosmic rays were |
| 00:31:50 |
It all came down to the Sun. |
| 00:31:56 |
If you had X-ray eyes |
| 00:32:00 |
what appears as a nice |
| 00:32:03 |
...would appear like a raging tiger. |
| 00:32:13 |
The Sun is an incredibly |
| 00:32:17 |
..and is raying out great |
| 00:32:22 |
and puffs of gas... |
| 00:32:25 |
...and endless solar wind... |
| 00:32:28 |
that's forever rushing |
| 00:32:31 |
There, in a certain sense, |
| 00:32:33 |
inside the atmosphere |
| 00:32:37 |
the intensity of its magnetic |
| 00:32:40 |
more than doubled... |
| 00:32:42 |
...during the 20th century. |
| 00:32:46 |
In 2005, astrophysicists |
| 00:32:50 |
published the following graph... |
| 00:32:52 |
in the official Journal of the |
| 00:32:55 |
The blue line represents |
| 00:32:57 |
in the Arctic over the |
| 00:33:01 |
and here is the rising CO2 |
| 00:33:06 |
The two are not |
| 00:33:09 |
But now look again at |
| 00:33:12 |
and at this red line... |
| 00:33:13 |
which depicts variations |
| 00:33:16 |
over the past century as recorded |
| 00:33:20 |
from NASA and American's |
| 00:33:23 |
...and Atmospheric Administration. |
| 00:33:25 |
Solar activity over the |
| 00:33:27 |
or over the last several |
| 00:33:29 |
correlates very nicely |
| 00:33:32 |
with sea ice and Arctic |
| 00:33:36 |
To the Harvard astrophysicists... |
| 00:33:38 |
and many other scientists |
| 00:33:42 |
The Sun is driving |
| 00:33:45 |
CO2 is irrelevant. |
| 00:33:48 |
But why, if this is so, are we |
| 00:33:52 |
with news items about |
| 00:33:55 |
Why do so many people |
| 00:33:57 |
and elsewhere regard it |
| 00:34:02 |
To understand the power |
| 00:34:05 |
we must tell the story |
| 00:34:15 |
"The weather satellite depicts |
| 00:34:18 |
...for his lost harvests |
| 00:34:21 |
Doom laid and predictions... |
| 00:34:22 |
about climate change |
| 00:34:25 |
In 1974 the BBC warned us of |
| 00:34:28 |
that might seem |
| 00:34:30 |
Again and again, |
| 00:34:32 |
have been showing us |
| 00:34:34 |
...the American Midwest suffered... |
| 00:34:36 |
...its worst droughts |
| 00:34:38 |
...and tornados were |
| 00:34:41 |
And what was going to be |
| 00:34:44 |
The man behind the series was... |
| 00:34:46 |
former New Scientist Editor, |
| 00:34:49 |
In "The weather Machine" |
| 00:34:52 |
...the mainstream |
| 00:34:55 |
...which was global cooling and |
| 00:34:59 |
"Nature's ice dwarfs us and..." |
| 00:35:02 |
After four decades of |
| 00:35:05 |
experts warn that |
| 00:35:07 |
...would have catastrophic |
| 00:35:09 |
"There's the ever-present |
| 00:35:12 |
Will a new ice age |
| 00:35:15 |
...and bury our Northern cities?" |
| 00:35:17 |
But in mid to doom and gloom |
| 00:35:19 |
there was one voice of hope: |
| 00:35:21 |
a Swedish scientist called Bert Bolin, |
| 00:35:24 |
...tentatively suggested |
| 00:35:27 |
might help to warm the world, |
| 00:35:29 |
although he wasn't sure: |
| 00:35:31 |
And there's a lot of oil, |
| 00:35:33 |
and there are vast |
| 00:35:35 |
and they seem to be burning |
| 00:35:38 |
and if we go on doing this, |
| 00:35:40 |
in about fifty years time, |
| 00:35:43 |
a few degrees warmer |
| 00:35:45 |
we just don't know. |
| 00:35:47 |
We were also the first to put |
| 00:35:49 |
Bert Bolin of Sweden |
| 00:35:54 |
talking about the dangers of CO2 |
| 00:35:57 |
and I remember being bitterly |
| 00:36:01 |
...for indulging him |
| 00:36:05 |
At the height of the |
| 00:36:09 |
Bert Bolin's eccentric theory... |
| 00:36:11 |
of man-made global |
| 00:36:14 |
two things happened |
| 00:36:17 |
First, temperatures |
| 00:36:20 |
and second, the miners |
| 00:36:29 |
To Margaret Thatcher, |
| 00:36:30 |
energy was a political problem. |
| 00:36:32 |
In the early 70's the oil crisis had |
| 00:36:36 |
and the miners had dropped down... |
| 00:36:37 |
Ted Heath's conservative government |
| 00:36:40 |
Mrs. Thatcher was determined |
| 00:36:44 |
she set out to break their power. |
| 00:36:47 |
"What we have seen in this country... |
| 00:36:50 |
is the emergence of an |
| 00:36:55 |
who are prepared to exploit industrial |
| 00:37:01 |
the breakdown of law and order |
| 00:37:03 |
and the distraction of democratic |
| 00:37:07 |
The politization of this subject... |
| 00:37:09 |
started with Margaret Thatcher. |
| 00:37:13 |
She was very concerned, always |
| 00:37:15 |
(I remember when I was Secretary |
| 00:37:18 |
to promote nuclear power, |
| 00:37:20 |
long before the issue of |
| 00:37:24 |
because she was concerned |
| 00:37:28 |
and she didn't trust the Middle East |
| 00:37:30 |
and she didn't trust the |
| 00:37:32 |
so she didn't trust oil |
| 00:37:35 |
so therefore she thought |
| 00:37:37 |
...to push ahead with nuclear power. |
| 00:37:40 |
And then, when the climate change |
| 00:37:44 |
she thought this is great, |
| 00:37:45 |
this is another argument |
| 00:37:47 |
because it doesn't have |
| 00:37:49 |
this is another argument |
| 00:37:52 |
and that is what she |
| 00:37:54 |
it's been misrepresented |
| 00:37:56 |
And so she said to the scientists, |
| 00:37:58 |
she went to the Royal Society |
| 00:38:00 |
"there's money on the table |
| 00:38:06 |
so of course they went |
| 00:38:09 |
Inevitably the moment politicians |
| 00:38:12 |
put that weight behind something |
| 00:38:14 |
and attach their name to |
| 00:38:17 |
money will flow, |
| 00:38:20 |
and inevitably research, |
| 00:38:24 |
started to bubble up |
| 00:38:26 |
which are going to |
| 00:38:29 |
but with a particular emphasis |
| 00:38:31 |
on the relationship between |
| 00:38:35 |
At the request of Mrs. Thatcher, |
| 00:38:37 |
the UK Met Office set up |
| 00:38:40 |
which provided the basis... |
| 00:38:41 |
for a new international |
| 00:38:44 |
the Intergovernmental Panel |
| 00:38:49 |
They came out with the first big report |
| 00:38:53 |
which predicted climatic disaster |
| 00:38:56 |
as a result of global warming |
| 00:38:58 |
I remember going to the |
| 00:39:02 |
and being amazed by two things: |
| 00:39:05 |
first, the simplicity and |
| 00:39:09 |
(and the vigour with which was delivered) |
| 00:39:12 |
and secondly, the total disregard |
| 00:39:16 |
of all climate science up to that time, |
| 00:39:20 |
including incidentally |
| 00:39:24 |
which had been the subject |
| 00:39:28 |
at the Royal Society just |
| 00:39:33 |
But the new emphasis |
| 00:39:36 |
as a possible environmental problem |
| 00:39:38 |
didn't just appeal to Mrs. Thatcher. |
| 00:39:42 |
It was certainly something very favourable |
| 00:39:46 |
to the environmental idea, |
| 00:39:48 |
what I call the medieval |
| 00:39:51 |
a sort of "let's get back |
| 00:39:53 |
to the way things were |
| 00:39:56 |
and get rid of all these |
| 00:39:59 |
They loved it, because |
| 00:40:03 |
...an emblem of industrialization. |
| 00:40:07 |
While CO2 clearly is |
| 00:40:10 |
and tried and self-tied |
| 00:40:16 |
with transportation in cars, |
| 00:40:22 |
and there are forces in the |
| 00:40:26 |
that are simply against |
| 00:40:29 |
they think that's bad. |
| 00:40:32 |
It could be used to |
| 00:40:34 |
a whole sweet of myths |
| 00:40:37 |
anticar, antigrowth, |
| 00:40:41 |
and, above all, anti that |
| 00:40:48 |
Patrick Moore is considered... |
| 00:40:49 |
one of the foremost |
| 00:40:51 |
...of his generation. |
| 00:40:52 |
He is co-founder of Greenpeace. |
| 00:40:55 |
The shift to climate being |
| 00:40:58 |
came about for two |
| 00:41:01 |
the first reason was |
| 00:41:04 |
a majority of people now agreed |
| 00:41:08 |
we in the environmental movement |
| 00:41:11 |
now when a majority of |
| 00:41:14 |
it's pretty hard to remain |
| 00:41:17 |
and so the only way to remain |
| 00:41:20 |
to adopt ever more |
| 00:41:23 |
When I left Greenpeace it was |
| 00:41:26 |
adopting a campaign to |
| 00:41:29 |
Like I said: "You guys, |
| 00:41:31 |
this is one of the elements |
| 00:41:34 |
I mean, I'm not sure |
| 00:41:36 |
to be banning a whole element". |
| 00:41:40 |
The other reason that environmental |
| 00:41:43 |
was because world communism failed, |
| 00:41:45 |
the wall came down, |
| 00:41:46 |
and a lot of peaceniks |
| 00:41:49 |
moved into the environmental movement, |
| 00:41:51 |
bringing their neo-marxism with them |
| 00:41:54 |
and learnt to use green language |
| 00:41:55 |
in a very clever way |
| 00:41:56 |
to cloak agendas that |
| 00:41:59 |
to do with anticapitalism |
| 00:42:02 |
than they do anything |
| 00:42:04 |
The left have been |
| 00:42:08 |
by the manifest failure |
| 00:42:12 |
and indeed marxo-communism |
| 00:42:15 |
as it was tried out, |
| 00:42:17 |
and therefore they still remain |
| 00:42:21 |
but they have to find new |
| 00:42:24 |
And it was a kind of |
| 00:42:29 |
from Margaret Thatcher |
| 00:42:33 |
through to bioleft wing |
| 00:42:39 |
That created this kind |
| 00:42:44 |
...behind a looney idea. |
| 00:42:48 |
By the early 1990's |
| 00:42:51 |
was no longer a slightly |
| 00:42:54 |
it was a full-blown |
| 00:42:57 |
it was attracting media |
| 00:43:00 |
more governmental funding. |
| 00:43:02 |
Prior to Bush the elder, |
| 00:43:05 |
I think the level of |
| 00:43:09 |
and climate-related |
| 00:43:12 |
somewhere around the |
| 00:43:15 |
which is reasonable for |
| 00:43:18 |
it jumped to two billion a year: |
| 00:43:21 |
more than a factor of ten |
| 00:43:25 |
and yes, that changed |
| 00:43:29 |
lot of jobs, it brought a lot of new people |
| 00:43:33 |
into it who otherwise |
| 00:43:36 |
so you develop whole cadres |
| 00:43:39 |
only interest in the field was that... |
| 00:43:42 |
...it was global warming. |
| 00:43:45 |
If I wanted to do research on, |
| 00:43:47 |
shall we say, |
| 00:43:51 |
what I would do, |
| 00:43:54 |
and this is anytime |
| 00:43:57 |
I would write my grant |
| 00:44:01 |
"I want to investigate... |
| 00:44:03 |
the not-gathering |
| 00:44:07 |
with special reference |
| 00:44:09 |
to the effects of |
| 00:44:12 |
and that way I get my money... |
| 00:44:14 |
if I forget to mention |
| 00:44:16 |
I might not get the money. |
| 00:44:18 |
There's a question in my mind... |
| 00:44:20 |
that the large amounts of money |
| 00:44:22 |
that have been fed into this particular, |
| 00:44:24 |
rather small area of science |
| 00:44:26 |
have distorted the |
| 00:44:29 |
We're all competing for funds |
| 00:44:32 |
and if your field is the |
| 00:44:38 |
then you have done much |
| 00:44:41 |
why your field should be funded. |
| 00:44:52 |
By the 1990's tenths of billions of dollars of government |
| 00:44:55 |
funding in the US, |
| 00:44:58 |
were being diverted into |
| 00:44:59 |
research relating |
| 00:45:01 |
A large portion of those funds |
| 00:45:03 |
went into building computer models |
| 00:45:05 |
to forecast what the climate |
| 00:45:08 |
But how accurate are those models? |
| 00:45:11 |
Doctor Roy Spencer |
| 00:45:12 |
is a senior scientist |
| 00:45:14 |
at NASA's Marshall |
| 00:45:17 |
he has been awarded medals |
| 00:45:18 |
for exceptional scientific achievement |
| 00:45:20 |
in both NASA |
| 00:45:21 |
and the American |
| 00:45:25 |
Climate models are only as good |
| 00:45:27 |
as the assumptions that go into them, |
| 00:45:28 |
and they have hundreds of assumptions. |
| 00:45:30 |
All it takes as one assumption |
| 00:45:31 |
to be wrong for the forecast |
| 00:45:34 |
Climate forecasts are not new, |
| 00:45:36 |
but in the past scientists |
| 00:45:39 |
about their ability to |
| 00:45:42 |
"Any attempt of forecasting |
| 00:45:44 |
meets skepticism from the men |
| 00:45:46 |
who model the weather by computer." |
| 00:45:48 |
In making decisions |
| 00:45:50 |
a bad prediction as to what... |
| 00:45:52 |
the climate of the future will be, |
| 00:45:54 |
can be far worse than none at all. |
| 00:45:56 |
I'm afraid that our understanding |
| 00:45:58 |
of the complex weather machine |
| 00:46:00 |
is not yet good enough to make |
| 00:46:02 |
a reliable statement of the future. |
| 00:46:08 |
All models assume that man-made CO2 |
| 00:46:11 |
is the main cause of climate change, |
| 00:46:13 |
rather than the Sun or the clouds. |
| 00:46:16 |
The analogy I use is like my car |
| 00:46:18 |
is not running very well |
| 00:46:20 |
so I'm going to ignore |
| 00:46:22 |
and I'm gonna ignore the transmission |
| 00:46:24 |
which is the water vapour |
| 00:46:26 |
and I'm gonna look at one |
| 00:46:27 |
knot at the right rear wheel |
| 00:46:28 |
which is the human-produced CO2. |
| 00:46:30 |
It's that, the science is that bad. |
| 00:46:36 |
If you haven't understood |
| 00:46:39 |
If you haven't understood |
| 00:46:41 |
that cause the increase |
| 00:46:42 |
the solar, the CO2, the |
| 00:46:47 |
and put it all together, |
| 00:46:49 |
If we haven't got all that |
| 00:46:51 |
then your model isn't |
| 00:46:54 |
The range of climate |
| 00:46:58 |
These variations are |
| 00:47:01 |
altering the assumptions upon |
| 00:47:04 |
The runs are so complicated |
| 00:47:07 |
in such a way that they |
| 00:47:11 |
I work with modellers, |
| 00:47:14 |
with a mathematical model |
| 00:47:17 |
you can model anything, |
| 00:47:20 |
you can make it get colder |
| 00:47:25 |
Since all the models assume |
| 00:47:27 |
that man-made CO2 |
| 00:47:29 |
one obvious way to produce |
| 00:47:32 |
is to increase the amount |
| 00:47:35 |
CO2 going into the atmosphere. |
| 00:47:37 |
We put an increase in CO2 |
| 00:47:41 |
it's been 0.49% per year |
| 00:47:45 |
0.42 for the ten years before that |
| 00:47:48 |
0.43 for the ten years before that, |
| 00:47:50 |
so the models have twice as much |
| 00:47:52 |
greenhouse warming |
| 00:47:56 |
as is known to be happening. |
| 00:47:58 |
It shouldn't shock that they predict |
| 00:48:00 |
more warming than is ocurring. |
| 00:48:06 |
Models predict what the temperature |
| 00:48:08 |
might be in fifty or a hundred years time. |
| 00:48:11 |
It is one of their peculiars features |
| 00:48:13 |
that long-range climate forecasts |
| 00:48:15 |
are only proved wrong long |
| 00:48:17 |
after peope have |
| 00:48:19 |
As a result, there is a danger, |
| 00:48:21 |
according to Professor Carl Wunsch |
| 00:48:23 |
that modellers will we less concerned |
| 00:48:25 |
in producing a forecast that is accurate |
| 00:48:27 |
than one that is interesting. |
| 00:48:30 |
Even within the scientific community, |
| 00:48:32 |
you see, it's a problem. |
| 00:48:34 |
If I run a complicated model |
| 00:48:38 |
like melt a lot of ice into the ocean |
| 00:48:41 |
and nothing happens, |
| 00:48:44 |
it's not likely to get printed. |
| 00:48:46 |
But if I run the same model |
| 00:48:49 |
in such a way that something dramatic |
| 00:48:51 |
happens to the ocean circulation |
| 00:48:53 |
like the heat transport turns off |
| 00:48:56 |
it will be published, people will say: |
| 00:48:58 |
"This is very exciting" |
| 00:49:00 |
and will even be picked up by the media. |
| 00:49:02 |
So there's a bias, |
| 00:49:05 |
within the media and within |
| 00:49:06 |
the science community itself |
| 00:49:07 |
towards results which |
| 00:49:15 |
If all freezes over, |
| 00:49:16 |
that's a much more interesting story |
| 00:49:18 |
than saying well, you know, |
| 00:49:22 |
sometimes the mass |
| 00:49:25 |
sometimes it goes down by 20% |
| 00:49:27 |
but eventually it comes back. |
| 00:49:29 |
You know, which would |
| 00:49:32 |
I mean, that's what is about. |
| 00:49:35 |
To the untrained eye computer |
| 00:49:39 |
and they give often wild |
| 00:49:42 |
the appearance of rigoruous science. |
| 00:49:45 |
They also provide an endless... |
| 00:49:47 |
source of spectacular |
| 00:49:49 |
The thing that has amazed me |
| 00:49:53 |
is how the most elementary |
| 00:49:57 |
seem to have been |
| 00:50:01 |
In fact, the theory of |
| 00:50:03 |
has spawned an entirely |
| 00:50:07 |
We've got a whole new generation of reporters, |
| 00:50:10 |
environmental journalists; |
| 00:50:12 |
now, if you are an |
| 00:50:16 |
and if the global warming |
| 00:50:21 |
so does your job. |
| 00:50:23 |
It really is that crude, |
| 00:50:26 |
and their reporting has to |
| 00:50:30 |
because there are still, |
| 00:50:33 |
a few hardened news |
| 00:50:37 |
"This is what you were |
| 00:50:40 |
"Oh, but now is much |
| 00:50:42 |
they are going to be |
| 00:50:44 |
by next tuesday or something..." |
| 00:50:47 |
They have to keep on getting shriller... |
| 00:50:50 |
and shriller and shriller. |
| 00:50:53 |
It is now common in the media |
| 00:50:55 |
to lay the blame for every storm |
| 00:50:57 |
or hurricane on global warming, |
| 00:50:59 |
but is there any scientific basis for this? |
| 00:51:02 |
This is purely propaganda. |
| 00:51:05 |
Every textbook in |
| 00:51:09 |
the main source of |
| 00:51:13 |
is the temperature difference |
| 00:51:15 |
between the tropics and the pole, |
| 00:51:17 |
and we are told in a warmer world |
| 00:51:20 |
this difference will get less. |
| 00:51:22 |
Now that would tell you |
| 00:51:24 |
you'll have less storminess |
| 00:51:26 |
you'll have less variability |
| 00:51:28 |
but for some reason that |
| 00:51:31 |
so you tell the opposite. |
| 00:51:33 |
News reports frequently argue |
| 00:51:35 |
that even a mild increase |
| 00:51:38 |
could lead to a catastrophic |
| 00:51:42 |
but what does Earth's |
| 00:51:45 |
We happen to have temperature |
| 00:51:47 |
records of Greenland... |
| 00:51:48 |
that go back thousands of years. |
| 00:51:51 |
Greenland has been much warmer. |
| 00:51:53 |
Just a thousand years ago |
| 00:51:55 |
Greenland was warmer than it is today. |
| 00:51:57 |
Yet it didn't have a |
| 00:52:01 |
Even if we talk about |
| 00:52:04 |
a great deal of the permafrost |
| 00:52:06 |
(that icy layer under the |
| 00:52:09 |
seven or eight |
| 00:52:11 |
melted far more than we're having |
| 00:52:13 |
any evidence about it melting now. |
| 00:52:15 |
So in other words... |
| 00:52:16 |
this is a historical pattern again |
| 00:52:18 |
but the world didn't come |
| 00:52:23 |
Professor Syun-Ichi Akasofu |
| 00:52:25 |
is head of the International |
| 00:52:28 |
in Alaska. |
| 00:52:29 |
The IARC is the world's leading |
| 00:52:34 |
Professor Akasofu |
| 00:52:36 |
the ice caps are always |
| 00:52:38 |
naturally expanding and contracting. |
| 00:52:41 |
There are reports |
| 00:52:44 |
of big chunks of ice break |
| 00:52:46 |
away from Antarctic continent. |
| 00:52:50 |
Those mass have been |
| 00:52:54 |
but because now we have a satellite |
| 00:52:58 |
they can detect those. |
| 00:53:00 |
That's why they become news. |
| 00:53:04 |
These data, from NASA's |
| 00:53:07 |
shows the huge |
| 00:53:09 |
and contraction |
| 00:53:11 |
taken place in the 1990's. |
| 00:53:13 |
I'd say all the TV programs |
| 00:53:16 |
that debate to global warming |
| 00:53:18 |
so big chunks of ice falling |
| 00:53:21 |
from the edge of the glaciers |
| 00:53:23 |
well people forget that |
| 00:53:29 |
News reports frequently |
| 00:53:31 |
of ice breaking from |
| 00:53:33 |
what they don't say is that... |
| 00:53:35 |
this is as ordinary event in the Arctic |
| 00:53:37 |
as falling leaves on |
| 00:53:40 |
They ask me, they just see ice falling |
| 00:53:44 |
from the edge of the greatest: |
| 00:53:46 |
yes, that's spring breakup |
| 00:53:51 |
Press come to us towards |
| 00:53:54 |
"you want to say something... |
| 00:53:56 |
...about the greenhouse disaster?", |
| 00:53:59 |
and I say: "there is none". |
| 00:54:02 |
Alarming television programs |
| 00:54:04 |
raised the fear for prospect |
| 00:54:06 |
a vast tidal waves flooding Britain. |
| 00:54:08 |
But what causes the sea |
| 00:54:10 |
...and how fast does it happen? |
| 00:54:13 |
Sea level changes over |
| 00:54:16 |
are governed fundamentally |
| 00:54:19 |
what we would call |
| 00:54:21 |
the relationship of |
| 00:54:22 |
which often by the way is |
| 00:54:23 |
to do with the land rising or falling |
| 00:54:25 |
and anything to do with the sea, |
| 00:54:27 |
but if you're talking about |
| 00:54:28 |
what we call eustatic changes of sea, |
| 00:54:31 |
worldwide changes of sea, |
| 00:54:33 |
that's through the thermal |
| 00:54:37 |
nothing to do with melting ice. |
| 00:54:38 |
And that's an enormously slow, |
| 00:54:40 |
a long process. |
| 00:54:44 |
People say: "Oh, I see the ocean... |
| 00:54:46 |
doing this last year... |
| 00:54:48 |
that means that something changed |
| 00:54:51 |
in the atmosphere last year", |
| 00:54:53 |
and this is not |
| 00:54:55 |
in fact this is actually |
| 00:54:57 |
because it can take hundreds |
| 00:55:00 |
for the deep ocean to |
| 00:55:04 |
and changes |
| 00:55:05 |
hat are taking place |
| 00:55:08 |
It is also suggested that |
| 00:55:10 |
even a mild rise in temperature |
| 00:55:12 |
will lead to the spread northward |
| 00:55:14 |
of deadly insect-born tropical |
| 00:55:18 |
But is this true? |
| 00:55:21 |
Professor Paul Reiter |
| 00:55:22 |
of the Pasteur Institute in Paris |
| 00:55:24 |
is recognized as one of the world's |
| 00:55:26 |
leading experts on malaria |
| 00:55:28 |
and other insect-born diseases. |
| 00:55:30 |
He is a member of the |
| 00:55:32 |
expert advisory committee... |
| 00:55:34 |
was chairman of the... |
| 00:55:35 |
American Committee |
| 00:55:37 |
of the American Society |
| 00:55:39 |
and lead author on |
| 00:55:41 |
of the US National |
| 00:55:43 |
of the potential consequences |
| 00:55:48 |
As Professor Reiter |
| 00:55:50 |
mosquitoes thrive in |
| 00:55:55 |
Mosquitoes are not |
| 00:55:58 |
Most people would |
| 00:55:59 |
in temper regions there |
| 00:56:02 |
in fact, mosquitoes are |
| 00:56:04 |
extremely abundant |
| 00:56:07 |
The most devastating |
| 00:56:10 |
was in the Soviet |
| 00:56:13 |
there was something like |
| 00:56:16 |
and something like |
| 00:56:19 |
a tremendous |
| 00:56:21 |
that raised up to |
| 00:56:23 |
Archangel had |
| 00:56:26 |
and about 10 thousand deaths. |
| 00:56:28 |
So it's not a |
| 00:56:30 |
Yet these people in the |
| 00:56:34 |
invent the idea that... |
| 00:56:36 |
malaria will move northward. |
| 00:56:38 |
Climate scare stories cannot be blamed |
| 00:56:41 |
solely on sloppy or |
| 00:56:43 |
According to Professor Reiter, |
| 00:56:45 |
hysterical alarms have |
| 00:56:47 |
by the reports of the UN's IPCC. |
| 00:56:53 |
On spread of malaria, |
| 00:56:54 |
the IPCC warns us that: |
| 00:56:56 |
"Mosquito species that |
| 00:56:58 |
do not usually survive... |
| 00:56:59 |
where the mean |
| 00:57:01 |
drops below 16-18ºC". |
| 00:57:05 |
According to Professor Reiter |
| 00:57:06 |
this is clearly untrue. |
| 00:57:08 |
I was horrified to read the second |
| 00:57:10 |
and the third assessment reports |
| 00:57:12 |
because there was |
| 00:57:15 |
without any kind of records |
| 00:57:18 |
or virtually without mention |
| 00:57:22 |
the trully scientific literature, |
| 00:57:24 |
literature by specialists |
| 00:57:27 |
In a letter to the |
| 00:57:29 |
Professor Frederick Seitz, |
| 00:57:31 |
America's National |
| 00:57:34 |
revealed that IPCC officials |
| 00:57:36 |
had censored the |
| 00:57:39 |
He said that: |
| 00:57:40 |
"This report is not |
| 00:57:42 |
that was approved by |
| 00:57:45 |
At least 15 key sections |
| 00:57:48 |
...had been deleted. |
| 00:57:49 |
These included statements like: |
| 00:57:51 |
"None of the studies cited |
| 00:57:54 |
...that we can attribute |
| 00:57:56 |
...to increases in |
| 00:57:58 |
"No study to date has |
| 00:58:01 |
...all or part |
| 00:58:03 |
climate changes to |
| 00:58:05 |
Professor Seitz concluded: |
| 00:58:07 |
"I have never witnessed |
| 00:58:11 |
of the peer-review process |
| 00:58:13 |
than the events that |
| 00:58:17 |
In its reply, the IPCC... |
| 00:58:18 |
did not deny making |
| 00:58:21 |
but it said that there |
| 00:58:23 |
or bias in the report, |
| 00:58:24 |
and that uncertainties about... |
| 00:58:25 |
...the cause of global warming |
| 00:58:28 |
The changes have been made, |
| 00:58:30 |
it said, in response |
| 00:58:32 |
...from governments, |
| 00:58:34 |
and non-governmental |
| 00:58:36 |
When I resigned from the IPCC |
| 00:58:39 |
I thought this was the end of it; |
| 00:58:41 |
but when I saw the final draft, |
| 00:58:43 |
my name was still there. |
| 00:58:45 |
I asked for it to be removed: |
| 00:58:47 |
Well, they told me, |
| 00:58:48 |
that I had contributed |
| 00:58:51 |
So I said: "No, I haven't contributed |
| 00:58:53 |
because they haven't |
| 00:58:55 |
So in the end it was |
| 00:58:57 |
but finally I threatened |
| 00:59:00 |
and they removed my name, |
| 00:59:01 |
and I think this happens |
| 00:59:03 |
those people who are specialists |
| 00:59:05 |
but don't agree |
| 00:59:08 |
and resigned... |
| 00:59:09 |
(and there have been |
| 00:59:12 |
they are simply put |
| 00:59:14 |
and become part of these... |
| 00:59:15 |
2,500 of the world's |
| 00:59:19 |
Research relating to |
| 00:59:21 |
is now one of the best |
| 00:59:24 |
The US government alone spends... |
| 00:59:25 |
...for than 4 billion dollars a year. |
| 00:59:28 |
According to NASA |
| 00:59:30 |
scientists who speak out... |
| 00:59:31 |
...against man-made global warming |
| 00:59:33 |
have a lot to lose. |
| 00:59:35 |
It's generally harder to get |
| 00:59:38 |
because of the stands |
| 00:59:41 |
and you'll find very few of us |
| 00:59:42 |
that are willing to take public stand |
| 00:59:44 |
because it does cut |
| 00:59:48 |
It is a common prejudice |
| 00:59:49 |
that scientists |
| 00:59:51 |
with the theory of man-made |
| 00:59:53 |
must have been paid by |
| 00:59:57 |
I get it all the time: |
| 00:59:58 |
"You must be in the pay |
| 01:00:01 |
Sadly, like most of the |
| 01:00:04 |
I haven't see a penny |
| 01:00:06 |
I'm always accused of being paid |
| 01:00:07 |
by oil and gas companies. |
| 01:00:08 |
I've never received a nickel |
| 01:00:09 |
from the oil and gas companies. |
| 01:00:11 |
I joke about I wished |
| 01:00:13 |
then I could afford |
| 01:00:15 |
Whenever anybody says that... |
| 01:00:16 |
I'm in the pay of an oil company, |
| 01:00:19 |
I say my bank manager |
| 01:00:24 |
There's almost no private sector |
| 01:00:27 |
and yet, to be involved |
| 01:00:30 |
which involves an industry grant, |
| 01:00:32 |
no matter how small, |
| 01:00:33 |
and spell ruin to a |
| 01:00:36 |
Modern technology fuelled |
| 01:00:40 |
Patrick Michaels is Professor |
| 01:00:43 |
at the University of Virginia. |
| 01:00:45 |
He was chair of the committee |
| 01:00:47 |
at the American Meteorological Society, |
| 01:00:50 |
president of the American Association |
| 01:00:51 |
of State Climatologists, |
| 01:00:52 |
the author of three books on Meteorology, |
| 01:00:54 |
...and an author and reviewer |
| 01:01:01 |
But when he conducted research |
| 01:01:02 |
which was part funded |
| 01:01:05 |
he found himself among those |
| 01:01:06 |
under attack from |
| 01:01:12 |
"British based corporations... |
| 01:01:14 |
are some of the worst climate |
| 01:01:18 |
Shell is based in the UK, |
| 01:01:22 |
and we have the right and the duty |
| 01:01:24 |
to take it back into public ownership, |
| 01:01:26 |
and send its managers |
| 01:01:26 |
and send its managers |
| 01:01:31 |
But reasoned debate... |
| 01:01:33 |
is not the only casualty in |
| 01:01:36 |
As international public |
| 01:01:39 |
on industrial emissions of CO2, |
| 01:01:41 |
the developing world is coming |
| 01:01:43 |
under intense pressure |
| 01:01:50 |
"I'm not expert on climate change, |
| 01:01:52 |
I'm not scientist, |
| 01:01:53 |
what I'm gonna say next |
| 01:01:56 |
is just that: turn it off! |
| 01:02:00 |
Anything you don't need, |
| 01:02:03 |
it's easier than you think |
| 01:02:12 |
Delegates from |
| 01:02:13 |
are flying into Nairobi |
| 01:02:14 |
for a conference |
| 01:02:17 |
to talk about global warming. |
| 01:02:21 |
Civil servants, |
| 01:02:22 |
professional NGO campaigners, |
| 01:02:24 |
carbon offset funder managers, |
| 01:02:26 |
environmental journalists and others, |
| 01:02:28 |
will discuss every aspect |
| 01:02:32 |
from how to promote |
| 01:02:34 |
to the relationship between |
| 01:02:38 |
The conference lasts ten days; |
| 01:02:40 |
the number of delegates |
| 01:02:44 |
The billions of dollars |
| 01:02:46 |
means there's a |
| 01:02:48 |
of people dependent |
| 01:02:50 |
and they will want to |
| 01:02:53 |
happens in any burocracy. |
| 01:02:55 |
Where I live we have local council, |
| 01:02:59 |
a local council global warming officer. |
| 01:03:03 |
There's a huge tail out there of people |
| 01:03:09 |
who have in one way |
| 01:03:12 |
been recruited to join this |
| 01:03:16 |
Anybody who then |
| 01:03:19 |
"hey, wait a minute, |
| 01:03:21 |
and rationally and carefully, |
| 01:03:23 |
and see actually how much merit, |
| 01:03:25 |
how much this stands up, |
| 01:03:27 |
they will be ostracized. |
| 01:03:30 |
Scientists, accustomed to the relatively civility |
| 01:03:33 |
and obscurity of academic life, |
| 01:03:35 |
suddenly find themselves |
| 01:03:37 |
if they dare to challenge |
| 01:03:39 |
...man-made global warming, |
| 01:03:41 |
...vilified by campaign groups |
| 01:03:43 |
and even within |
| 01:03:45 |
there's an old English saying: |
| 01:03:47 |
"if you stand up in the coconut-shy, |
| 01:03:49 |
they're gonna throw at you". |
| 01:03:50 |
So I understand there's |
| 01:03:53 |
but it gets pretty difficult |
| 01:03:54 |
and pretty nasty and very personal. |
| 01:03:57 |
And I've been death threats |
| 01:04:01 |
so I'm not doing it for my health. |
| 01:04:04 |
These days, if you are skeptical |
| 01:04:06 |
about the Litany around |
| 01:04:09 |
you are suddlely like as if |
| 01:04:15 |
The environmental movement really |
| 01:04:16 |
it is a political activist movement |
| 01:04:19 |
and they have become hugely |
| 01:04:27 |
And every politician |
| 01:04:30 |
Whether you are in the left, |
| 01:04:31 |
in the middle or the right, |
| 01:04:32 |
you have to pay homage |
| 01:04:37 |
In the past moth, |
| 01:04:38 |
the global warming campaign |
| 01:04:39 |
has won a great victory: |
| 01:04:40 |
the United States government, |
| 01:04:42 |
once a bastion of resistance, |
| 01:04:44 |
has succumbed. |
| 01:04:45 |
George Bush is now an allied. |
| 01:04:48 |
Western governments have now |
| 01:04:50 |
embraced the need for |
| 01:04:52 |
to restrain industrial production |
| 01:04:54 |
in the developed and developing world. |
| 01:04:57 |
But is it what cost? |
| 01:04:59 |
Paul Driessen is a former |
| 01:05:02 |
My big concern with |
| 01:05:05 |
is that the policies |
| 01:05:08 |
to supposedly prevent |
| 01:05:11 |
are having a disastrous effect |
| 01:05:14 |
...on the world's poorest people. |
| 01:05:16 |
Global warming campaigners say |
| 01:05:18 |
it does not harm to be on the safe side; |
| 01:05:20 |
even if the theory of man-made |
| 01:05:22 |
climate change is wrong, |
| 01:05:23 |
we should impose draconian measures |
| 01:05:25 |
to cut carbon emissions, just in case. |
| 01:05:29 |
They call this the |
| 01:05:32 |
The precautionary principles |
| 01:05:35 |
It's basically used to promote |
| 01:05:37 |
a particular agenda in ideology, |
| 01:05:39 |
it's always used in one direction only. |
| 01:05:42 |
It talks about the risks of |
| 01:05:46 |
fossil fuels for example, |
| 01:05:48 |
but never about the |
| 01:05:51 |
It never talks about the benefits |
| 01:05:53 |
of having that technology. |
| 01:05:57 |
Anne Mougela is about to cook... |
| 01:05:59 |
...a meal for her children. |
| 01:06:01 |
She is one of the 2 billion people, |
| 01:06:03 |
a third of the world's population, |
| 01:06:05 |
who have no access to electricity. |
| 01:06:07 |
Instead, they must burn wood |
| 01:06:09 |
or dried animal dung in their homes. |
| 01:06:12 |
The indoor smoke this creates |
| 01:06:14 |
is the deadliest form of |
| 01:06:17 |
According to the World |
| 01:06:19 |
four million children |
| 01:06:21 |
die each year from |
| 01:06:24 |
caused by indoor smoke, |
| 01:06:26 |
and many millions of |
| 01:06:28 |
from cancer and lung disease |
| 01:06:31 |
If you ask a rural person |
| 01:06:35 |
they'll tell you: |
| 01:06:36 |
"yes I'll know I move |
| 01:06:39 |
when I have electricity". |
| 01:06:41 |
Actually not having electricity |
| 01:06:42 |
creates such a long |
| 01:06:45 |
cause the first thing |
| 01:06:47 |
So you have to go to sleep earlier |
| 01:06:50 |
because there's no light, |
| 01:06:52 |
there's no reason to |
| 01:06:54 |
you can't talk to each |
| 01:06:57 |
No refrigeration or |
| 01:06:59 |
means food cannot |
| 01:07:01 |
Fire in the hut is too smoky |
| 01:07:03 |
and consumes too much |
| 01:07:07 |
There is no hot water. |
| 01:07:09 |
We in the West cannot |
| 01:07:11 |
how hard life is |
| 01:07:14 |
The life expectancy of people... |
| 01:07:15 |
who live like this in |
| 01:07:18 |
Their existance impoverished |
| 01:07:24 |
A few miles away the UN |
| 01:07:25 |
is hosting its conference |
| 01:07:28 |
in its plush gated headquarters. |
| 01:07:32 |
Gift shop is selling souvenirs |
| 01:07:34 |
while delegates discuss... |
| 01:07:36 |
how to promote what |
| 01:07:38 |
"sustainable forms of |
| 01:07:42 |
Africa has coal, |
| 01:07:46 |
but environmental groups |
| 01:07:48 |
against the use of these |
| 01:07:52 |
Instead, they say Africa... |
| 01:07:54 |
and the rest of the |
| 01:07:56 |
...should use solar |
| 01:08:02 |
A short drive out of Nairobi |
| 01:08:04 |
we find our first solar panel. |
| 01:08:08 |
A Kenian public health official |
| 01:08:10 |
has brought us to a clinic |
| 01:08:11 |
which serves several villages. |
| 01:08:14 |
The only electrical |
| 01:08:16 |
in the clinic are |
| 01:08:18 |
and a refrigerator in which |
| 01:08:20 |
medicine and blood samples. |
| 01:08:23 |
Electricity is provided |
| 01:08:27 |
- So what can you to do successfully? |
| 01:08:32 |
What happens when you put |
| 01:08:36 |
Tell us, what happens? |
| 01:08:38 |
- It sounds an alarm? |
| 01:08:42 |
- Can we maybe see that? |
| 01:08:52 |
The solar panels allow Dr. Samuel Morangui |
| 01:08:55 |
to use either the lights |
| 01:08:58 |
but not both at |
| 01:09:00 |
If he does, the |
| 01:09:04 |
Wind and solar power |
| 01:09:07 |
as a source of electricity, |
| 01:09:08 |
and are at least three |
| 01:09:11 |
than conventional forms |
| 01:09:15 |
The question would be |
| 01:09:18 |
how many people in the United States |
| 01:09:20 |
are already using |
| 01:09:23 |
and how cheap is it, you see, |
| 01:09:25 |
if it's expensive for the Europeans, |
| 01:09:28 |
if it's expensive for the Americans, |
| 01:09:30 |
and we are talking |
| 01:09:32 |
you know, it doesn't make sense. |
| 01:09:35 |
The rich countries |
| 01:09:37 |
to engage in some |
| 01:09:38 |
experimentation with |
| 01:09:41 |
but for us we are still |
| 01:09:46 |
To former environmentalist |
| 01:09:48 |
the idea that the world's |
| 01:09:51 |
should be restricted |
| 01:09:53 |
most expensive and inefficient |
| 01:09:57 |
is the most morally |
| 01:10:00 |
of the global warming campaign. |
| 01:10:03 |
Let me make one |
| 01:10:06 |
if we are telling the Third World |
| 01:10:08 |
that they can only have |
| 01:10:11 |
what we are really telling them is: |
| 01:10:14 |
"You cannot have electricity". |
| 01:10:18 |
The challenge we have, |
| 01:10:19 |
when we meet western |
| 01:10:22 |
who say we must engage |
| 01:10:24 |
in the use of solar panels |
| 01:10:28 |
is how we can have |
| 01:10:32 |
because I don't see how a solar panel |
| 01:10:35 |
is going to power a steel industry, |
| 01:10:38 |
how a solar panel, you know, |
| 01:10:40 |
is going to power maybe |
| 01:10:46 |
It might work maybe to |
| 01:10:52 |
I think one of the most pernicious aspects |
| 01:10:54 |
of the modern environmental movement |
| 01:10:56 |
is the romantization of peasant life, |
| 01:11:00 |
and the idea that industrial societies |
| 01:11:03 |
are the destroyers of the world. |
| 01:11:08 |
One clear thing that emerges |
| 01:11:10 |
from the old environmental debate |
| 01:11:12 |
is the point that there's somebody |
| 01:11:15 |
keen to kill the African dream, |
| 01:11:18 |
and the African dream is to develop. |
| 01:11:20 |
The environmental movement |
| 01:11:22 |
has evolved into the |
| 01:11:25 |
for preventing development |
| 01:11:29 |
We have been told |
| 01:11:31 |
don't touch your oil, |
| 01:11:32 |
don't touch your coal, |
| 01:11:34 |
that is suicide. |
| 01:11:36 |
I think it's legitimate for me |
| 01:11:39 |
like OK, you don't have to think |
| 01:11:41 |
humans are better than whales, |
| 01:11:45 |
or better than owls, |
| 01:11:47 |
or whatever if you don't |
| 01:11:50 |
But surely it is not a good idea |
| 01:11:54 |
to think of humans as sort of being scum, |
| 01:11:56 |
you know, that is OK to have |
| 01:11:59 |
going blind or dead or whatever, |
| 01:12:01 |
I just can't relate to that. |
| 01:12:04 |
The theory of man-made |
| 01:12:06 |
is now so firmly entrenched, |
| 01:12:08 |
the voices of opposition |
| 01:12:11 |
it seems invincible, |
| 01:12:13 |
untroubled by any |
| 01:12:16 |
no matter how strong. |
| 01:12:18 |
The global warming alarm |
| 01:12:23 |
There will be still people |
| 01:12:25 |
who believe that this is |
| 01:12:28 |
particularly when you |
| 01:12:31 |
the chief scientist |
| 01:12:34 |
telling people that by |
| 01:12:36 |
the only habitable |
| 01:12:39 |
will be the Antarctic. |
| 01:12:41 |
And it may, humanity |
| 01:12:44 |
thanks to some |
| 01:12:46 |
who moved to |
| 01:12:48 |
I mean this is hilarious. |
| 01:12:51 |
It would be hilarious |
| 01:12:58 |
TRANSCRIPTION: Geekette and Eduard |
| 01:13:07 |
Downloaded From www.moviesubtitles.org |
